My friends at IBM research invited me and small group to the latest Watson Challenge at UC Berkeley and Stanford this week. I had a deep dive into the computing technology behind Watson and it was a exceptional.

Watson, named for the founder of IBM, was the computer that beat the World chess champ and recently became the winner over the humans on Jeopardy. Now Wellpoint the health care provider to 60,000 patients wants to hire Watson to do decision analysis.

I know what your thinking–HAL from 2001, the Matrix and Terminator’s Skynet cannot be far off. If we have Angry Birds will we have Angry Computers? This is a fair question. Luddites don’t unite just yet. There are legitimate concerns about supercomputers running our world in ways that humans do not approve of where humans are oppressed by computers. We are not there yet.

What the folks at IBM do get credit for is experimenting with inventing new ways to intelligently use data and computing to maybe, just maybe make the planet and our future a better place. Other then just making a commercial product they are making a profound contribution to computing technology but also are doing some Big Thinking about how we can use computers in health care, security, transportation and safety to better meet grand planetary challenges.

For this I give them lots of credit, willing to think big and apply computing to larger more holistic frameworks. If we are going to face the big challenges of our day and the future, Watson and computers and AI’s like Watson, who become, even evolve into true thinking machines with IDH Intelligence Different then Humans will make the difference.

Watson is a learning computer operating at 80 terabytes of power and 15 terabytes of memory. What makes Watson interesting is not the techno data but the combination of machine learning, natural language processing and reasoning programming. Watson is the beginning of a new more powerful era of thinking machines.

Is Watson a true AI, an artificial intelligence I asked the IBM team, is “he” capable do you think one day of self-awareness? maybe even consciousness? They don’t think Watson now or in the future will achieve self-awareness and after the deep dive into the technology behind Watson I agree.

AI, once known as the fifth generation of computing project ran into many barriers over the past 30 year of computing. Theoretically AI, thinking machines are possible and likely but not based on the still rudimentary computer tools we have today.

What future does Watson point to? Intuitive computing based on nanoscience-based computer chips, software that is genetic-inspired, Cloud Computing networks, quantum information systems and synthetic biology when mashed up will offer new hardware, software and computing ontologies that will transform the future of computing.

So real AI, that can advise us and invent new solutions for a planet in conflict dealing with poverty, explosive population, war, climate change and business requires a new computing model well beyond where we can can envision today. Are we there yet? No but we are on the way.

The exploration of evolutionary biology, as a computing platform is a direction I am interesting in exploring. Computers that use GA and GP, genetic programming and algo’s may hold the key to future computers.
Computing that is based on network cloud deployed anywhere AI, cloud based intelligence, with a personality, now that is coming.

If we are really going to make a better world we need next gen tools like Watson to help us get there. When Watson builds the next Watson then we will perhaps discover a new generation of post-human computing, built by computers that can help the humans figure this all out.
Stay tuned.

Recently I gave a talk at the International Women’s Forum http://www.iwforum.org/ in Washington DC, just near the White House. I don’t think I have been surrounded by so many dynamic, smart and educated women from around the world, 35 nations. This was an impressive and epic event well crafted where men were the minority in the room. This event brought together innovators from the Arab Spring, corporations, scientists, health economists, Ambassadors and diplomats to discuss balance and power on the planet. Human rights, innovation, freedom and prosperity were common themes. I learned a lot.

I gave a talk about the tech and science innovations coming in the future. I challenged my audience to use these tools–nano, bio, neuro, quantum, IT to make a better future–better health care, climate management, security, education, water and poverty management. I came away thinking these are the dynamic women who could shape the future, actually these 500 women from all over the world could do it.

The truly remarkable reality that exasperates the current economic crisis is we are all held captive by a lack of future visions; an absence of Innovative Big Ideas not being put forth by our global leaders. And those that should lead do not have and the courage to act on those few visions they do have. This obvious absence of leadership is a huge galaxy killing black hole that is the primary challenge facing our civilization: if we do not learn fast enough and come to understand the complexity of the challenges we have created so that we may find enduring solutions, we will encounter a clouded if not dismal future.

The list of complicated challenges demanding a future global vision includes: forging a sustainable global economic model that balances, growth and social responsibility; managed climate change; secure and affordable energy and affordable health care. My focus has been and I believe that investments in science and technology will play a large role in addressing global challenges of the 21st and 22nd century–but not without our leaders embracing the courage and the visions to apply these innovation tools.

The battle for the future is being played out now by our global leaders. Our economic models are in conflict. Our managing great challenges like water, climate change, health care cost containment, innovating in science and technology for making a better world is essential to our future. The economic uncertainty that will continue for some time will be a drag on the very investments in the future that may solve some of the large problems of our time.

The crisis in global leadership I would bet will be met by corporate leaders. Top talent from IBM, Cisco, Apple, Philips, GE and numerous emerging nation high tech start ups especially run by women will change the game. The leaders of the future may be dominated by women who will have the smarts, collaboration skills, tech savvy and maybe the Big Ideas that are needed to shape the future of the world for the better. I am betting on them.

This moment in time is historically quite bizarre. Perhaps the deep pessimism that pervades the European mindset is that secretly they love the vision of a dystopian future and soon perhaps this will actually become realized. Then the critics of American positivism can be right after all as the EU brings down the global economy. I don’t think that is going to happen but then this futurist is a Yank.

The current conflict in the EU, with Greece threatening to spread their contagion of economic unsustainable finances and bring down the rest of the EU, if not the world is, in a Connected Economy actually today possible. This is the irony of the Connected Economy–connected for good or worse. The US has not dodged the bullet fully here but has experimented with bailouts already and headed off further financial contagion for now.

One of two scenarios will play out. Greece will accept the bailout package and basically push off the fiscal responsibility (with the EU cheering on) to future generations, hoping that growth in GDP and productivity will outpace their debt. This is magical thinking as Greece has no productive industrial sector and has no plan to invest in one like in the US, Germany or England. This of course is not a fix to put off the payment of debt and forgive some, but institutional denial of the inevitable, downgrading of Greece, then the EU as well or the prelude to either a Greek default or a downgrade of Greek status as a full EU member is the second scenario which is more real-politic but not likely.

As I wrote about in my book the Extreme Future, all markets, asset classes and economies are linked via globalization and technology in a one huge global network topology is like a Internet network, chaotic yet linked in various and intimate interconnected ways. Most experts could not agree on the various types of interconnections that have created this accelerating connectivity. I am grappling with this concept in my next book.

The Connected Economy is a recognition that validates when Greece falters on accepting the bailout deal as they did, the EU central bank reacts and cuts rates, the US Federal Reserve goes with a gloomy forecast, the US and Asia stock markets decline, MF Global with its sovereign EU exposure files for Chapter 11, major banks and securities worldwide lose billions in value all happening in ONE 24 hour period. If anyone does not believe the Connected Economy is real, they must have missed the last 15 years. Notice I did not evaluate or judge this phenomena as being good or bad for the global or sovereign economies, which is still very much a mixed bag to be analyzed later.

This is simply not an intelligent path to creating a sustainable global future for the EU or the world. Everyone knows it. Putting off to the next generations our problems because we have not the courage or intelligence to fix them now, is a recipe for more chaos. I cannot fathom our children approving of our cowardice in the future.

What kind of future do we want? One in which we deal with crises as a global commons with leaders telling citizens the truth and working to manage the future or to persist with the same old tired ideas and paradigms of the past? This is the strategic issue that faces business, society and individuals–what is our Connected Future going to look like?

The key issue of course is about the clash of civilizations: two vastly different models of the future based on different models of economics. The free enterprise capitalist and innovation based consumer economy versus the social welfare state of entitlements economy are as different as day and night. The free enterprise economy is driven by growth from consumer spending, innovation, investments in technology and business. Social entitlements such as education, health care, retirement and jobs represent a radically different model of incentives, competition, innovation and society.

How does this clash of civilizations play out? Well, what economic and social paradigms will create a better future is my question. Is growth and productivity as a panacea even possible long term in social welfare economies? I don’t think so. Is rogue capitalism that serves special interests better? I don’t think so. A balance of models including social accountability and free enterprise can and must be crafted for the future prosperity and security of the planet.

James Canton

Steve Jobs passing has touched millions and rightfully so. As an innovator he wrote the book. In my last posting I acknowledged the lessons I learned working with Steve and Apple. But now his death has stirred new awareness in me about him and his legacy.

Look around our world in our home, in our kids hands, in schools and more now in business–The Apple experience is pervasive in our world, not just the device of choice. Animation from Disney where Pixar lives to iTunes, a paradigm shifting new business model to the iPhone populate our lives across the world. But Steve was always about a bigger idea that was beyond selling stuff. He was always about putting tools into people’s lives to transform their world for the better. This was a fundamental part of Steve’s DNA. He was not just a great salesman, he was a reality-shifter. This is an alchemy quite different.

When we launched the Mac at Apple none of us including Steve Jobs or Woz had a clue how the world would embrace it. We were all nervous and excited. Not quite flying blind but not looking over our shoulders but into a unknown future. There had been recent computer failures by Apple. The media was not rooting for us. IBM and all of business had dismissed Apple. Many thought we were not ready for prime time.

Much has been made about that Apple never did in the early days consumer research which is not true. Steve was not a big fan but some of us with a background in business decided that this could be a learning opportunity. I ran the first focus groups on the Mac with doctors in 1983 bringing ten into Apple HQ to show them the Macs. They were impressed and actually looked at them as they would other medical or surgical tools. Being in charge of business and industries like medicine, I wanted to learn from them about the new Macs. Steve did not oppose things even when he was not fully in agreement.

At Apple, we thought we were doing very cool things with technology to inspire the creativity of the individual, not make a productivity machine or even to make money. We were empowering the world with new personal innovation tools. At least that was the big idea. At Apple, in 1984 we were infected by an electric excitement authored by Steve. He was the catalyst for and the Apple culture reinforced, shaped and nurtured about changing the world.

Steve was baby boomer like myself. Many boomers were influenced by the progressive politics of the 60’s, the Vietnam War, Watergate, the social awakening of the American youth, the civil rights movement and the human potential movement, from Fritz Pearls to Tim Leary. These cultural change forces were about making the world a better place. This was the social context, the culture of making the world a better place, challenging norms, challenging authority and ultimately changing the establishment (becoming the establishment) that Steve and the Boomers were shaped by. Not all of us drank the whole cool aid but Steve did and he, like all of us then was struggling to making a difference before we even knew what that was about.

Apple, in this way, was shaped by the culture of dissent, invention and the rationale challenge of creating an alternative to society’s norms. The Mac was designed to be a social and personal tool of transformation, not just a computer. Even today this is still not quite understood or dismissed as an exaggeration. To Steve and most of us in the early days at Apple, this was our creed.

The intro of the  new Mac was made to media and analysts first before the public saw it in 1984. This was Steve’s idea. We needed a big buzz to promote the computer. So we placed the Mac’s, each one in their hotel rooms. When they came in before the unveiling of the next day there was a computer sitting on each of the desks in their hotel rooms. No manual, no directions, nothing, just the Mac sitting there like some sentient beast waiting to come alive.

The natural instinct was to touch the Mac which the analysts did. And then something strange happened. Something that even today is not well known but points us to the future of computing–the Mac came “alive” and spoke Hello. This was the first time a computer spoke to a human. This was the first intimate, very natural and intelligent communication between a human and a computer. All smart machines of the future will owe a legacy to the first speaking computer, the Mac that greeted the public in 1984.Putting a voice chip into the Mac was pure imagination. That was Steve.

I am sad about Steve’s passing because most of what I learned about technology, culture and business I learned first at Apple. I recall being asked what I was doing at Apple, rather then writing books about future trends and innovation and at 30 years old, with a new PhD, I felt I knew little about technology so was there to learn, explore, discover. I was there to be part of a revolution in culture that transcended computing. It was about then in 1984 and still is today in 2011, making a better world. Steve knew that and his gift was reminding us we are about bigger stuff–the stuff that makes a better world.

A year after the iPhone was introduced there was Steve holding up a billion dollar check he was paying out to iPhone developers. Steve had empowered again a new generation of entrepreneurs, with a new personal computing platform. Steve and Apple created a tsunami of innovation that went beyond business they transformed culture. And Steve’s legacy may continue not by Apple alone but by the millions of inspired individuals that are using and will use cool Apple products to make a better world.

We will never know what Steve could have done if he had more time to live. Would he have created a new generation of Apple TV app entrepreneurs? Would he have created cloud based super-cheap computers that would transform the economics of the world? Or would Apple computers be used to create a new super grid and deliver clean energy to millions?

One thing is for certain and that is that his memory should live on and inspire us all to create a better world, a world that meets with courage the grand challenges of the day. Steve would have wanted to see this new future.

Steve Jobs is leaving Apple as CEO in great shape. His is exiting as CEO to retain the chairman position but leaves behind an innovation leadership legacy that is transformational. I expect as I serve on boards of companies that he too will look to continue to inspire.  There is no leader in modern times that was more innovative, that broke more rules and invented more things that have transformed our world. Think about it: Apple, Disney, Pixar… Steve has been at the leading edge of transforming computing, entertainment, music, animation, software, platforms…I have a feeling he is not done but taking a break.

I worked at Apple headquarters in Silicon Valley in 1984 and was part of the team that launched the Macintosh computer. I worked in business strategy, strategic planning and managed global business markets, verticals like medicine were my passion and focus. I gave the first Mac’s to doctors and the National Institutes for Health for doing medical research on finding cures for kidney disease.

I learned much from working at Apple about innovation, markets and customers. Most of all what I learned from Steve was about an unrelenting furious passion and commitment to your vision of the future. This example has contributed to my success as a futurist in helping my clients think about, plan for and execute future strategies in business and government.

These were heady times. We knew we were igniting a revolution in how people used computing, information and culture. The Mac challenged that very idea of what a computer could be. Steve first evangelized the Mac to us, the employees, well before he sold the world.

Lesson #1 Every Leader Must Be the Chief Evangelist
You have to sell the Big Vision first to your employees. If they don’t get it then customers will never. This seems obvious but too many leaders today have the right financial chops or seniority or even board support but don’t embody this lesson. Steve invented it. Yes, it matters big.

Days before the Mac launch we sent around pictures of a Swiss Army knife, challenging ourselves that Mac was something else, not just a computer but a lifestyle appliance. Steve challenged us to think about the Mac as more then just a technology–it was an innovation in culture, lifestyle and learning.

Lesson #2 Think Different To Differentiate Your Company or Product

Steve was all about being innovative in marketing, product features, design, packaging, purpose—he knew that thinking differently was the key to differentiating Apple from the crowd of MeTo companies.

When we launched the Mac to the media and analysts we put a Mac in every room, with no manual. Other computers, like IBM came with huge manuals on how to operate. When the analysts came into their rooms we expected, and they did touch the computer. The Mac would turn on and they would hear from the computer HELLO. This blew their minds. Steve was always blowing our minds with innovation ideas.
Lesson #3 Take Smart Risks, Fail Fast and Don’t Give Up
People forget that Apple tried and failed at many things before succeeding. You learn more from mistakes then successes. Edison’s light bulb took 40,000 mistakes to get it right. Before the Mac computer the Lisa failed. Apple had a run at a an early iPad called Newton, it did not make it. Taking risks and persevering is important. What are you willing to fight for now?

Lesson #4 Enjoy the Journey

We all are here on the planet for a limited window. Make the most of it.
Steve would remind us all that you have to enjoy the journey. Or don’t do it. He challenged us all to make a commitment to ourselves to do something big, important and meaningful. These lessons are as true today as in 1984.

Lesson #5 Invent the Future

This is the big one. Being bold, being future-ready, this is what life and business is all about. If your going to invent the future you have to be willing to brake rules, take risks, make mistakes but most important–Think Big Ideas. Selling your big idea, your innovation is what every leader needs to do everyday. Steve was and is a fearless leader who invented the future: Mac, iPod, iPad, ITunes, Apple TV, the mouse… and a software interface that everyone has adopted for 20 years.

We wish Steve well in his next chapter and thank him for the lessons learned. I know his next innovations he will inspire at Apple will continue to touch us all.

Steve Jobs is leaving Apple in great shape. His is exiting as CEO to retain the chairman position but leaves behind a innovation leadership legacy that is transformational. There is no leader in modern times that was more innovative, that broke more rules and invented more things that have transformed our world.

I worked at Apple headquarters in Silicon Valley in 1984 and was part of the team that launched the Macintosh computer. I worked in business strategy, strategic planning and managed global business markets, verticals like medicine were my passion and focus. I gave the first Mac’s to doctors and the National Institutes for Health for doing medical research on finding cures for kidney disease.

These were heady times. We knew we were igniting a revolution in how people used computing, information and culture. The Mac challenged that very idea of what a computer could be. Steve first evangelized the Mac to us, the employees well before he sold the world.

Lesson #1 Every Leader Must Be the Chief Evangelist
You have to sell the Big Vision first to your employees. If they don’t get it then customer will never. This seems obvious but too many leaders today have the right financial chops or seniority or even board support but don’t embody this lesson. Steve invented it.

Days before the Mac launch we sent around pictures of a Swiss Army knife, challenging ourselves that Mac was something else, not just a computer but a lifestyle appliance. Steve challenged us to think about the Mac as more then just a technology–it was a innovation in culture, lifestyle and learning.

Lesson #2 Think Different To Differentiate Your Company or Product

Steve was all about being innovative in marketing, product features, design, packaging, purpose—he knew that thinking differently was the key to differentiating Apple from the crowd of MeTo companies.

When we launched the Mac to the media and analysts we put a Mac in every room, with no manual. Other computers, like IBM came with huge manuals on how to operate. When the analysts came into their rooms we expected and they did touch the computer. The Mac would turn on and they would hear from the computer HELLO. This blew their mind. Steve was always blowing our minds with innovation ideas.
Lesson #3 Take Smart Risks, Fail Fast and Don’t Give Up
People forget that Apple tried and failed at many things before succeeding. You learn more from mistakes then successes. Edison’s light bulb took 40,000 mistakes to get it right. Before the Mac computer the Lisa failed. Apple had a run at a at an early iPad called Newton, it did not make it. Taking risks and persevering is important.

Lesson #4 Enjoy the Journey

We all are here on the planet for a limited window. Make the most of it.
Steve would remind us all that you have to enjoy the journey. Or don’t do it. He challenged us all to make a commitment to ourselves to do something big, important and meaningful. These lessons are as true today as in 1984.

Lesson #5 Invent the Future

This is the big one. Being bold, being future-ready, this is what life and business is all about. If your going to invent the future you have to be willing to brake rules, take risks, make mistakes but most important–Think Big Ideas. Selling your big idea your innovation is what every leader needs to do everyday. Steve was and is a fearless leader who invented the future: Mac, iPod, iPad, ITunes, Apple TV, the mouse… and a software interface that everyone has adopted for 20 years.

We wish Steve well in his next chapter and thank him for the lessons learned. I know his next innovations he will inspire at Apple will continue to touch us all.

No nation or business wants more financial uncertainty. But that is what the US is dishing up this week as the debt issue is now everyone’s issue. Meeting with government ministers and business folks here in Indonesia as well as talking to other Asian officials has been a wake up call given the current state of affairs.

Messy very messy state of affairs I say. So it’s days before the default deadline and I am in Asia traveling. The strange reality is the Debt Ceiling Crisis, and it is now a crisis affects the world markets, not just the US. This is especially true of Asia. The concerns from Asia are with nations such as China holding over a trillion in US dollars and with the increased risk of reduced consumer export demand from the US, instability and uncertainty are now the major concern.

No leader wants excess uncertainty. That’s the word from Asia. Uncertainty breeds risk. Risk threatens stability and predictive forecasts that economies, markets and organizations need to thrive.

The new reality is that Asia has escaped the last global financial crisis with the CDO contagion, again brought to the world’s banks and economies by the US, now we have a another crisis affecting markets, currencies and debt. Is is time for the US leaders to grow up and realize that the linkage of economies is game over, transnational globalization and connected global economies, especially in Asia and the US, are a dynamic intimate interdependence that is not being managed well. Meaning, critics here share that US is not holding up its end. Now default uncertainty is being factored into markets, currencies and government policy. But we have an erosion of confidence and trust that is negative.

This is not how responsible global superpowers play the game given the Post-Bretton Woods advantage of the US. Asia is nervous and they have a right to be. No economy stands alone today. Let’s get on with it and manage this uncertainty before real damage is done. A new reserve currency maybe? Power comes with responsibility.

We need a new generation of leaders that understand the multi-polar world of intimate linkage of economies and who have a vision and responsibility that surpasses the politics. I am for cutting and curtailing spending, even a balanced budget for the US I would support. But being captive to the current chaos is not helping the US or Asia. Let’s get on with it.

Interesting observations from Jakarta where I am presenting at the Futurology conference. My thesis is that advanced exponential tech innovations, S&T, nano-bio-neuro-IT-quantum are some of the prime tools to use to feed, provide health care, energy, manage climate for the 8 plus billion people coming soon on the planet. We can’t get there from here without new investments in S&T.

Last week we went live with Global Futurist. Our Apple iPhone and iPad app is now live and Free for all to download.

If you want to know what’s next in future trends in energy, tech, climate, population, business strategy and more, see Global Futurist.

Android to follow.

Enjoy

Hanging out at the Semantic Web show http://semtech2011.semanticweb.com/index.cfm
in SF yesterday with Sandy Rosenberg, an IGF adviser made me realize how early we are in understanding the semantic web. The show was intimate and eye opening regarding the powerful potential for this technology.

Simply put, the Semantic Web is about tagging everything and linking every data, audio, image and video source to everything–including us. Also context pattern recognition–finding insight into data that is useful.

Then better search emerges, smarter analytics emerge and maybe we understand how to sell, profit, serve and help people better in everything we do–from health care to security to making new drugs and finding new customers.

The Semantic Web will either be a boon to business or a huge intrusion into life by forces that want to mine and predict your desires. You may say what’s wrong with mining my desires? If you have to ask you missed it.

Personally I think a super computing AI, think Google in the near future with the power of predictive analytic media, seductive, immersive, intuitive, sensing your Desires and then enabling your desires for information, products, services, experiences to be fulfilled sounds both fantastic and disturbing at the same time.

Are not happy in the Matrix? OK maybe that’s too much. But someone in a very undemocratic place like Iran or North Korea may use this Rogue Technology to exploit our desires in ways not happy.

Think neuromarketing meets social media meets the semantic web. Who will watch the watchers? In the manufacture of desire be careful what you ask for.

I do think the semantic web also and primarily will drive valuable new services in media entertainment and health care, to name a few.

See Semantic Web Show in SF, well done event
http://semtech2011.semanticweb.com/index.cfm