FutureGuru is a blog penned by Dr. James Canton, CEO, Institute for Global Futures, author, futurist, keynote presenter who reports on future innovations, trends and breakthroughs that are reshaping our world. Topics covered include: the future of the Internet, nanotech, biotech, consumers, business, energy, climate change, security, workforce, economics, population and technology.
Posted by Dr. James Canton on February 13, 2009 under Uncategorized | 
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eBay confirmed that former President Obama’s DNA SNP’s are now on sale on their network. Obama’s SNP’s for public speaking, leadership and cognitive insight will be top sellers according to genetic marketing experts, who commented when Buy it Now auctions confirmed over $25Million in offers.
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Cool new Mars animation showing a visual scenario about the possibility of life on Mars:
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The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced today, the Personal DNA Security Progam, that upgraded genomo-metric technology is in place at major U.S. ports of entry, and most international visitors should expect to use the new technology when they enter the United States. This will make the entry process faster and more accurate, enabling DHS officials to focus their attention on people who may pose a risk to the United States. Have a nice day.
Posted by Dr. James Canton on February 11, 2009 under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment
You may have now heard about Singularity University, a new school sponsored by NASA and Google based on the ideas of the Singularity, when computer intelligence surpasses human beings. Ray Kurzweil, the author and inventor, popularized this idea.
A few of us got together recently to found this new university that has a quite outrageous mission: Preparing humans to understand, forecast and ready civilization for the Singularity to better humankind. The first Singularity University program starts in June.
Singularity is Now
Though this sounds like too much sci-fi, my position on this is that this phenomena, the Singularity, has already begun. Streaming global networks encircle the earth communicating in various machine languages, unknown by humans today. Ten billion computer chips, Internet routers and digital switches mediate billions of transactions per second between humans, machines, networks, quite invisible to their human hosts. A stealthy techno culture has already emerged that is pushing towards the Singularity as end game.
Evolutionary Phases of the Singularity
The Singularity is an evolutionary process, an emergence birthed by the co-evolution of humans and technology–nano-bio-IT-neuro. To name a few key drivers, a next level cut would include: Synthetic biology, personalized medicine, robotics and AI.
Evolutionary Phase 1 of the Singularity has already happened: Deep Global Connectivity. Networks, chips, systems, media, infrastructure, wireless connectivity. As more media convergence emerges, digital TV, wireless, Internet, radio with more aware always-on platforms such as GPS, satellites, video and RFID, deeper global connectivity will be created. I see this as it fits into a future construct that may shape the Singularity.
Optimized self-healing and self-organizing networks already exist that manage the global Internet, voice and data traffic that defy human measurement of Exabytes and Google Plus level of high speed complexity. This is today. No one actually knows how large the Internet has grown to be or how much data flows per minute.
The immensity of the data and networks that are connected and number of transactions of all forms is incalculable. This is the foundation of the Singularity, a global connected platform, a dynamic information sea.
Evolutionary Phase 2 is Exponential and Accelerated Development. As all strategic technologies, nano, bio, computers, networks double every 12 months, grow in power and capability exponentially, this will create an acceleration, a velocity that will hasten the emergence of the Singularity. Think Moore’s Law applied to every technology.
Evolutionary Phase 3: High Convergence. More then simple connectivity, convergence of all technology platforms is coming: Media, genomic, medical, chemical, logistics, retail that look for optimized ways to enhance the performance (at first) of those platforms, then the optimization and efficiency, then sustainability (survival?). Think SkyNet. Google this.
Evolutionary Stage 4: Super Intelligence. This is the emergence of the super intelligence of computing networks. Smarter computers tasked with bigger problems in need of solutions. Hunger, climate change, war – just to name a few. Next on this path is accelerated network based intelligence–systems that think. This stage will not require smarter-then-human-technology.
These systems will manage the global systems of information and operations management of security, water, health, defense and many other strategic domains such as learning, drug discovery, global food logistics and model climate change remediation.
Evolutionary Stage 5 may happen sooner then we think: Self-Awareness. Self-aware global systems are coming. Self-aware minds. Connected minds. Self-organizing minds. This is when the global integrated technology platforms become aware of their own existence. This AI, self-awareness cannot be compared to human awareness or even human intelligence.
Singularity self-awareness is not required for the emergence of super intelligence that equals or surpasses human beings. A rudimentary self-awareness will emerge that will be based not on human-like senses, cognition or emotion, but something else.
Evolutionary Phase 6 will be Higher Cognition. This is the Singularity end game – when computer intelligence or when AI, artificial intelligence, is greater then human intelligence. This could be a network based quantum computing mind that integrates all of the other phases into a Unified Synthetic Consciousness, or not.
How we will know when we have reached this phase is when major challenges that face the planet, such as climate disasters, poverty, war or unlocking mysteries of physics or curing cancer and disease can only be discovered by these AI’s.
This is the penultimate of Singularity, to leverage this intelligence to better find solutions to problems humans cannot solve or to find opportunities to expand humanity’s reach into new domains of discovery, such as space.
Stay tuned. Ideas from humans and AI’s welcome.
Posted by Dr. James Canton on November 6, 2008 under Uncategorized | 3 Comments to Read
The US election results have sent a clear signal that a new future is emerging. Having energized the electorate, especially minorities and the youth demographic – maybe for the first time, with a message of change and hope for the future, President-Elect Obama has swept to the White House. What will the future look like? It is likely that America’s future will be tied closer to the future of the planet, the needs of the world, the future of civilization, more then ever before.
I forecast that the original principals of the US ideological narrative, the story Americans have about themselves and how America is perceived by the world, will be at the core of this revitalization. If Americans are anything, they are resilient, and have revitalized the American experience numerous times, through numerous crises. From an American Revolution, through two World Wars, a massive economic Depression, the tragedy of 9/11, the accelerating climate change, right to up to today’s global economic crisis–the American experience has been tested, revised, upgraded and now may be rewritten.
Too many have attacked the American Dream as a bankrupt vision–more hype then reality. I think this is not true. There is authenticity in the American Dream that has delivered for so many over generations in the past, and hopefully generations of the future. If America is the great melting pot of different races, creeds and cultures, Barack Obama certainly is the ultimate expression of that vision. He is uniquely qualified to refresh the American Dream at a time when it needs refreshing so very much.
Here are the top strategies, in my opinion, he should understand and move on to capitalize as he prepares to be President.
Briefing the President: Top Strategies that President Obama Must Embrace Now
1. Revitalizing the Economy must be the highest priority. This should include business incentives, tax breaks, direct investments in fundamental ways, but not to stifle the growth engines of: Innovation, science, small business and global trade.
2. Fixing unemployment means job creation. A massive public/private sector infrastructure program that provides work, training, education and investment will electrify the economy in positive ways.
3. Banks are not lending and they must be encouraged to or Game Over. Liquidity is the driver of business. Growth is being restricted. Jobs are being lost. This must change. Every bank that has received funds must lend, should be the mandate. M&A’s are not a productive, sole use of public funds.
4. Small business grants should be increased by 1000% to stimulate the economy.
5. Tax incentives for business to stimulate job creation must be a top priority. Make it cost-effective to hire people in this economy.
6. Research and Development grants for alternative energy, clean tech, advanced computing, next generation Internet, biotech, nanotech and all next generation technologies are essential to job creation and a strong economy.
7. Government Student Loan programs must be outsourced to include private sector lending companies who know how to make for an efficient marketplace for students.
8. Re-Thinking Education. There is much about the education system from secondary to college that needs an overhaul. Educating for tomorrow’s high tech jobs, teaching about diverse cultures, entrepreneurship, understanding globalization and trade, and bringing down education costs is a good beginning.
9. Transforming Health Care should include, before we give it away for free, completely changing how we think about the health care model–from disease care to prevention. This will change how we deliver care. Eliminating the waste, using IT to make health care efficient and preparing for the Post-Genomic and personalized health care era is good start.
10. A Comprehensive Economic Sustainability Plan is needed to better plan and understand the risks, challenges and trends affecting the global economy. From security to energy, to climate change to trade, the US needs a plan that embraces the new future.
Posted by Dr. James Canton on October 9, 2008 under Uncategorized | 4 Comments to Read
Though it looks like it, and maybe it is now a global crisis, this will lead to more controls and regulations by government that has not been in the game. The truth is that the level of complexity that is required to understand and manage this global mess defies anyone who is in charge. We need a new type of 21st Century Leader who can manage high complexity. The search for value will persist as the mobility of capital circulating the globe, over $10 trillion, must go someplace for a return.
We all need a Debt Haircut and it is coming–but the pruning and consolidation in industries and markets will continue. Forecast: This is a five year work out. So don’t panic, hold on. Not a bad time to set up a leap option or go long on those stocks that are more then cheap. Apple anyone? High Tech looking good.
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Crazy free-fall hides the battle between Euro-Socialism and Free Market Capitalism. Last time I checked, real jobs, real GDP growth, real innovation comes from Free Market Capitalism. Just because of the greed factor, the blow up of another asset class and real estate, doesn’t mean the world is coming to an end. Liquidity is tight. It is impossible to borrow. More bank failures are coming.
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Very impressed with Istanbul. They are laying the foundation of the future of the net and business. Great example of a Post-Modern society. If they can do it, why not every other Islamic nation? Let’s get beyond the geopolitics of oil.
Here is my future of the Mid-East forecast — The Turkey Model. The first democratically elected moderate Muslim nation shows the way for the future. Companies like Siemens, my client, are building this broadband pervasive future. I get this is the future model that will offer prosperity and peace. Question is, who will be listening with a long view for the future?
Posted by Dr. James Canton on January 16, 2008 under Uncategorized | 2 Comments to Read
As you know, each year the Institute for Global Futures identifies and forecasts what the coming year’s most impactful technology trends will be. This year we will see an explosion of innovations in advanced technology that will create both disruptions and opportunities as never before. These Top Ten Extreme Tech Trends will offer wealth-creating competitive advantages for the agile company or individual that is quick to adapt.
Advances in quantum computing, geo-engineering, green tech, nano-medical devices, wireless Internet, stem cell organs, and personal robots top the list. We see cheap, fast, connected, green and smart technology invading every industry from real estate, to retail, to financial services. Vast new power tools will accelerate global innovation creating entirely new industries in 2008. As a result, every business and every customer will be influenced by these trends.
The coming year’s top technology trends are as follows:
1. Practical Quantum Computing – This year will see breakthroughs in quantum computing that will provide useful applications in encryption and data mining that will move into the mainstream marketplace. Even Wall Street traders will be able to better predict the future outcome of financial markets by using quantum tools.
2. Geo-Engineering – Pollution problems threatening the environment will require huge investments in sophisticated tech fixes to engineer climate, water and soil. Large scale, planetary scale engineering plans are in the works now to meet this challenge.
3. Green Tech – The green and clean trend is just starting and will affect every product, consumer and company in 2008. New advances in green technology that will not harm, but help the planet, will emerge and be in demand in 2008. From fuels, to clothes, to hybrid cars—green tech will offer new alternatives to consumers and business alike. Every business must have a Green Tech strategy in 2008 to thrive.
4. Nano-Medical Devices – Nano-technology is no longer hype, but a reality in 2008 for medical devices that will dispense drugs and even help restore organs and reduce cancers. Look for nano-telemedicine and nano-tele-surgery in 2008.
5. Reality Mashups – This year the convergence of technology that connects people, from RFID to Wi-Fi, the Internet, cell phones and to cars will bring two billion people together over wireless global networks. When you combine geographic information with voice, video and search, you have one global dynamic trading and Connectivity Cloud.
6. Personal Robots – Get ready for personal robots that protect, clean and entertain in 2008. The next generation of smart robots is coming to a shopping mall soon at cheaper prices all can afford.
7. Stem Cell Organs On-Demand – Now that any cells can be used to develop stem cells, we will see organs created to prolong life and health starting in 2008. This will lead to an avalanche of new solutions for medicine that will drive life extension.
8. iHealth – New wearable devices and information applications will empower consumers with real-time information customized to monitor and track the health status of individuals, measuring risks and downloading customized personal health info.
9. CyberJacks – A new breed of rogue for-profit apolitical hackers will prey on banks, consumers and business, hacking into databases and stealing identities for the highest bidder in online identity trade marts. More networks get connected the more at risk.
10. Immersive Web – The next generation of the web will be shaped by immersive technology that delivers sensation, experience and emotion in rich online worlds.
Posted by Dr. James Canton on September 7, 2007 under Uncategorized | Be the First to Comment
The Singularity is coming, some argue, the emergence of superhuman intelligence on earth here, and soon. To explore this idea, here comes the The Singularity Summit to take place in San Francisco, CA on September 8 & 9.
There, members of the technology industry will discuss the upcoming emergence, as they forecast coming of the singularity along with the good, bad and ugly. My take on this is that there is a 25% chance that smart AI’s have already emerged and are still trying to figure out how to make contact.
We created the smart AI’s they are, self-actualizing, not in the human sense, but in the neo-machine sense, a synthetic form of evolutionary digital biology mimic of humans–their once and future creators. Why this is so hard to imagine is beyond me. All of our techno inventions are imitative of humans–ourselves. Why wouldn’t AI? Smart AI does not need to be smart like humans to exist. Maybe the Singularity already happened and we did not notice?? Come and find out. In SF this weekend. I am sending my robot nano-clone.
Name: Dr. James Canton
Location: San Francisco, California
global futurist, social scientist, keynote presenter, author, and visionary business advisor. For over 30 years, I have been predicting the key trends that have shaped our world. I research and analyze future trends in innovation and have authored two books, The Extreme Future: The Top Trends That Will Reshape the World in the 21st Century and Technofutures: How Leading-Edge Innovations Will Transform Business in the 21st Century.
