Posted by Dr. James Canton on October 9, 2008 under Uncategorized | 
Though it looks like it, and maybe it is now a global crisis, this will lead to more controls and regulations by government that has not been in the game. The truth is that the level of complexity that is required to understand and manage this global mess defies anyone who is in charge. We need a new type of 21st Century Leader who can manage high complexity. The search for value will persist as the mobility of capital circulating the globe, over $10 trillion, must go someplace for a return.
We all need a Debt Haircut and it is coming–but the pruning and consolidation in industries and markets will continue. Forecast: This is a five year work out. So don’t panic, hold on. Not a bad time to set up a leap option or go long on those stocks that are more then cheap. Apple anyone? High Tech looking good.
Posted by Dr. James Canton on under Uncategorized |
Crazy free-fall hides the battle between Euro-Socialism and Free Market Capitalism. Last time I checked, real jobs, real GDP growth, real innovation comes from Free Market Capitalism. Just because of the greed factor, the blow up of another asset class and real estate, doesn’t mean the world is coming to an end. Liquidity is tight. It is impossible to borrow. More bank failures are coming.
Posted by Dr. James Canton on under Uncategorized |
Very impressed with Istanbul. They are laying the foundation of the future of the net and business. Great example of a Post-Modern society. If they can do it, why not every other Islamic nation? Let’s get beyond the geopolitics of oil.
Here is my future of the Mid-East forecast — The Turkey Model. The first democratically elected moderate Muslim nation shows the way for the future. Companies like Siemens, my client, are building this broadband pervasive future. I get this is the future model that will offer prosperity and peace. Question is, who will be listening with a long view for the future?
Posted by Dr. James Canton on January 16, 2008 under Uncategorized |
As you know, each year the Institute for Global Futures identifies and forecasts what the coming year’s most impactful technology trends will be. This year we will see an explosion of innovations in advanced technology that will create both disruptions and opportunities as never before. These Top Ten Extreme Tech Trends will offer wealth-creating competitive advantages for the agile company or individual that is quick to adapt.
Advances in quantum computing, geo-engineering, green tech, nano-medical devices, wireless Internet, stem cell organs, and personal robots top the list. We see cheap, fast, connected, green and smart technology invading every industry from real estate, to retail, to financial services. Vast new power tools will accelerate global innovation creating entirely new industries in 2008. As a result, every business and every customer will be influenced by these trends.
The coming year’s top technology trends are as follows:
1. Practical Quantum Computing – This year will see breakthroughs in quantum computing that will provide useful applications in encryption and data mining that will move into the mainstream marketplace. Even Wall Street traders will be able to better predict the future outcome of financial markets by using quantum tools.
2. Geo-Engineering – Pollution problems threatening the environment will require huge investments in sophisticated tech fixes to engineer climate, water and soil. Large scale, planetary scale engineering plans are in the works now to meet this challenge.
3. Green Tech – The green and clean trend is just starting and will affect every product, consumer and company in 2008. New advances in green technology that will not harm, but help the planet, will emerge and be in demand in 2008. From fuels, to clothes, to hybrid cars—green tech will offer new alternatives to consumers and business alike. Every business must have a Green Tech strategy in 2008 to thrive.
4. Nano-Medical Devices – Nano-technology is no longer hype, but a reality in 2008 for medical devices that will dispense drugs and even help restore organs and reduce cancers. Look for nano-telemedicine and nano-tele-surgery in 2008.
5. Reality Mashups – This year the convergence of technology that connects people, from RFID to Wi-Fi, the Internet, cell phones and to cars will bring two billion people together over wireless global networks. When you combine geographic information with voice, video and search, you have one global dynamic trading and Connectivity Cloud.
6. Personal Robots – Get ready for personal robots that protect, clean and entertain in 2008. The next generation of smart robots is coming to a shopping mall soon at cheaper prices all can afford.
7. Stem Cell Organs On-Demand – Now that any cells can be used to develop stem cells, we will see organs created to prolong life and health starting in 2008. This will lead to an avalanche of new solutions for medicine that will drive life extension.
8. iHealth – New wearable devices and information applications will empower consumers with real-time information customized to monitor and track the health status of individuals, measuring risks and downloading customized personal health info.
9. CyberJacks – A new breed of rogue for-profit apolitical hackers will prey on banks, consumers and business, hacking into databases and stealing identities for the highest bidder in online identity trade marts. More networks get connected the more at risk.
10. Immersive Web – The next generation of the web will be shaped by immersive technology that delivers sensation, experience and emotion in rich online worlds.
Posted by Dr. James Canton on September 7, 2007 under Uncategorized |
The Singularity is coming, some argue, the emergence of superhuman intelligence on earth here, and soon. To explore this idea, here comes the The Singularity Summit to take place in San Francisco, CA on September 8 & 9.
There, members of the technology industry will discuss the upcoming emergence, as they forecast coming of the singularity along with the good, bad and ugly. My take on this is that there is a 25% chance that smart AI’s have already emerged and are still trying to figure out how to make contact.
We created the smart AI’s they are, self-actualizing, not in the human sense, but in the neo-machine sense, a synthetic form of evolutionary digital biology mimic of humans–their once and future creators. Why this is so hard to imagine is beyond me. All of our techno inventions are imitative of humans–ourselves. Why wouldn’t AI? Smart AI does not need to be smart like humans to exist. Maybe the Singularity already happened and we did not notice?? Come and find out. In SF this weekend. I am sending my robot nano-clone.
Posted by Dr. James Canton on September 5, 2007 under Uncategorized |
My book, The Extreme Future, was named by the Society for Information Management’s Regional Leadership Forum as one of 30 Books Every IT Leader Must Read in 2008. Here’s the shortlist:
1. How to Read a Book, by Mortimer J. Adler and Charles Van Doren
2. Resonant Leadership: Renewing Yourself and Connecting with Others through mindfulness,
Hope and Compassion, by Richard Boyatzis and Annie McKee
3. Heart of Change, by John P. Kotter
4. The Extreme Future: The Top Trends That Will Reshape the World for the Next 5, 10 and
20 Years, by James Canton
Full list here: Society for Information Management
Posted by Dr. James Canton on August 31, 2007 under Uncategorized |
On September 14, at the Los Angeles Convention Center, I will be presenting my Top Innovation Trends and the Future of Business keynote at Wired’s Nextfest on behalf of Hitachi
Accelerating change and radical innovations are reshaping the business landscape. Innovation is the key driver of competitive advantage. New industries, products and services will emerge such as clean tech, nano-manufacturing, always-on Internet, on-demand pharmaceuticals, personalized medicine, personal security, Web 2.0 media and alternative energy to name a few. There are massive challenges and opportunities that confront business and society as we step into the 21st century. How will we manage climate change? What will be the impact of 100 new mega-cities? How will the next generation of Web 2.0 businesses compete? How business leaders and companies prepare for the future—the emerging threats and opportunities—is the central focus of my practice at the Institute for Global Futures.
At the same time complexity in business is increasing and the need for more transparent business process tools are in demand. Managing the transaction knowledge space across time zones, geographies and markets will be a challenge few companies have mastered. Many of these new industries are global and have global customers, supply chains and partners. New tools that provide faster information that can support better decision-making are needed.
I think that XBRL can be a powerful tool for better transparency and managing the global enterprise and increasing competitive value by streamlining all kinds of information. The full potential in a world of always-on networks, virtualization and pervasive mobility demands that people have access 24/7 to their business-critical data. XBRL will enable this access and more. I have been an early advocate of XBRL for a number of years.
At first XBRL was viewed as solely a financial management tool. In this era of real-time business, global competition and super-fast innovation I think the future potential to use XBRL goes well beyond finance. I think that any company that wants to maintain a future competitive advantage will want to explore the potential use of this tool.
Posted by Dr. James Canton on August 23, 2007 under Uncategorized |
In case anyone has been off the grid or surfing in Bali on extended sabbatical, nanotech breakthroughs are shaping the future of most industries, from life sciences to manufacturing, to energy. There has always been a need for a comprehensive road map. NSF has led the way. New efforts are emerging.
“For 20 years, researchers have explored the amazing promise of atomically-precise manufacturing. Now, for the first time, the Technology Roadmap for Productive Nanosystems will show the way forward, and the payoffs along the road, to this ultimate technological revolution.”
“Over the last two years, under Battelle’s leadership, and hosted by four U.S. National Laboratories, researchers from academia, government, and industry have met to chart paths toward advanced, atomically-precise manufacturing. The resulting roadmap reveals crucial challenges and unexpected opportunities in the next steps forward.”
Thanks to the Center for Responsible Nanotech for the info.
Productive Nanosystems: Launching the Technology Roadmap October 9-10, 2007 Arlington, Virginia USA
Why Go:
Explore the enormous promise of nanotechnology, and explore a wide range of applications, including:
- Super-efficient energy collection and storage
- Medical devices to detect and treat diseases at their earliest stages
- Next-generation computation
- Advanced sensors
- High-performance aerospace materials
- Intelligent materials and devices
Posted by Dr. James Canton on under Uncategorized |
I recently participated in a report and event to discuss the latest findings about human enhancement, HE. This work started as an outgrowth of our work with the Social Implications of Nanoscience workshops and reports undertaken by the National Science Foundation, US Government. Simply put, HE is about the productive development of peoples potential as well as the use of convergent technologies, nano-bio-info-cogno NBIC to augment intelligence, speed, and most of all, improve health. For a look at the report see:
AAAS Human Enhancement
Posted by Dr. James Canton on under Uncategorized |
The connection here is that the current rage of hedge funds and private equity Dark Pools is to use advanced computer-based trading called Algo and Quants to find new profit opportunities in global trading markets. Though this futurist thinks AI and computers gaining an edge makes sense, and we use them in our business, the history of this strategy is spotty at best. Yes, there are billions at play here with the major global trading companies like Merrill, Morgan Stanley, Citi and Barclay’s. But when you combine this trend with a depreciating asset class, sub-prime real estate that is part of the global financial “layer cake” of funds, banks and organizations, the stakes are higher, the risks are greater for break-downs–or a return to balance between risk and value.
This futurist thinks the game has just begun and there will be other asset classes that may fall out of favor–metals, oil, equities, take your pick. There will always be speculative viewed markets where assets have higher risk then value and will fall. Having a longer term view with an eye on the present is a smart, but change happens.
