The Global Futurist^TM

The US election results have sent a clear signal that a new future is emerging. Having energized the electorate, especially minorities and the youth demographic - maybe for the first time, with a message of change and hope for the future, President-Elect Obama has swept to the White House. What will the future look like? It is likely that America's future will be tied closer to the future of the planet, the needs of the world, the future of civilization, more then ever before.

I forecast that the original principals of the US ideological narrative, the story Americans have about themselves and how America is perceived by the world, will be at the core of this revitalization. If Americans are anything, they are resilient, and have revitalized the American experience numerous times, through numerous crises. From an American Revolution, through two World Wars, a massive economic Depression, the tragedy of 9/11, the accelerating climate change, right to up to today's global economic crisis--the American experience has been tested, revised, upgraded and now may be rewritten.

Too many have attacked the American Dream as a bankrupt vision--more hype then reality. I think this is not true. There is authenticity in the American Dream that has delivered for so many over generations in the past, and hopefully generations of the future. If America is the great melting pot of different races, creeds and cultures, Barack Obama certainly is the ultimate expression of that vision. He is uniquely qualified to refresh the American Dream at a time when it needs refreshing so very much.

Here are the top strategies, in my opinion, he should understand and move on to capitalize as he prepares to be President.

Briefing the President: Top Strategies that President Obama Must Embrace Now

1. Revitalizing the Economy must be the highest priority. This should include business incentives, tax breaks, direct investments in fundamental ways, but not to stifle the growth engines of: Innovation, science, small business and global trade.

2. Fixing unemployment means job creation. A massive public/private sector infrastructure program that provides work, training, education and investment will electrify the economy in positive ways.

3. Banks are not lending and they must be encouraged to or Game Over. Liquidity is the driver of business. Growth is being restricted. Jobs are being lost. This must change. Every bank that has received funds must lend, should be the mandate. M&A's are not a productive, sole use of public funds.

4. Small business grants should be increased by 1000% to stimulate the economy.

5. Tax incentives for business to stimulate job creation must be a top priority. Make it cost-effective to hire people in this economy.

6. Research and Development grants for alternative energy, clean tech, advanced computing, next generation Internet, biotech, nanotech and all next generation technologies are essential to job creation and a strong economy.

7. Government Student Loan programs must be outsourced to include private sector lending companies who know how to make for an efficient marketplace for students.

8. Re-Thinking Education. There is much about the education system from secondary to college that needs an overhaul. Educating for tomorrow's high tech jobs, teaching about diverse cultures, entrepreneurship, understanding globalization and trade, and bringing down education costs is a good beginning.

9. Transforming Health Care should include, before we give it away for free, completely changing how we think about the health care model--from disease care to prevention. This will change how we deliver care. Eliminating the waste, using IT to make health care efficient and preparing for the Post-Genomic and personalized health care era is good start.

10. A Comprehensive Economic Sustainability Plan is needed to better plan and understand the risks, challenges and trends affecting the global economy. From security to energy, to climate change to trade, the US needs a plan that embraces the new future.

Though it looks like it, and maybe it is now a global crisis, this will lead to more controls and regulations by government that has not been in the game. The truth is that the level of complexity that is required to understand and manage this global mess defies anyone who is in charge. We need a new type of 21st Century Leader who can manage high complexity. The search for value will persist as the mobility of capital circulating the globe, over $10 trillion, must go someplace for a return.

We all need a Debt Haircut and it is coming--but the pruning and consolidation in industries and markets will continue. Forecast: This is a five year work out. So don't panic, hold on. Not a bad time to set up a leap option or go long on those stocks that are more then cheap. Apple anyone? High Tech looking good.

Labels: 21st Century Leader, Debt Haircut, Global Crisis

Crazy free-fall hides the battle between Euro-Socialism and Free Market Capitalism. Last time I checked, real jobs, real GDP growth, real innovation comes from Free Market Capitalism. Just because of the greed factor, the blow up of another asset class and real estate, doesn't mean the world is coming to an end. Liquidity is tight. It is impossible to borrow. More bank failures are coming.

Labels: Dr. James Canton, Euro-Socialism, Free Market Capitalism, Malta, Wolters Kluwer

Very impressed with Istanbul. They are laying the foundation of the future of the net and business. Great example of a Post-Modern society. If they can do it, why not every other Islamic nation? Let's get beyond the geopolitics of oil.

Here is my future of the Mid-East forecast -- The Turkey Model. The first democratically elected moderate Muslim nation shows the way for the future. Companies like Siemens, my client, are building this broadband pervasive future. I get this is the future model that will offer prosperity and peace. Question is, who will be listening with a long view for the future?

Labels: Dr. James Canton, Istanbul, Siemens IT, The Turkey Model, Turkey

As you know, each year the Institute for Global Futures identifies and forecasts what the coming year's most impactful technology trends will be. This year we will see an explosion of innovations in advanced technology that will create both disruptions and opportunities as never before. These Top Ten Extreme Tech Trends will offer wealth-creating competitive advantages for the agile company or individual that is quick to adapt.

Advances in quantum computing, geo-engineering, green tech, nano-medical devices, wireless Internet, stem cell organs, and personal robots top the list. We see cheap, fast, connected, green and smart technology invading every industry from real estate, to retail, to financial services. Vast new power tools will accelerate global innovation creating entirely new industries in 2008. As a result, every business and every customer will be influenced by these trends.

The coming year's top technology trends are as follows:

1. Practical Quantum Computing - This year will see breakthroughs in quantum computing that will provide useful applications in encryption and data mining that will move into the mainstream marketplace. Even Wall Street traders will be able to better predict the future outcome of financial markets by using quantum tools.

2. Geo-Engineering - Pollution problems threatening the environment will require huge investments in sophisticated tech fixes to engineer climate, water and soil. Large scale, planetary scale engineering plans are in the works now to meet this challenge.

3. Green Tech - The green and clean trend is just starting and will affect every product, consumer and company in 2008. New advances in green technology that will not harm, but help the planet, will emerge and be in demand in 2008. From fuels, to clothes, to hybrid cars—green tech will offer new alternatives to consumers and business alike. Every business must have a Green Tech strategy in 2008 to thrive.

4. Nano-Medical Devices - Nano-technology is no longer hype, but a reality in 2008 for medical devices that will dispense drugs and even help restore organs and reduce cancers. Look for nano-telemedicine and nano-tele-surgery in 2008.

5. Reality Mashups - This year the convergence of technology that connects people, from RFID to Wi-Fi, the Internet, cell phones and to cars will bring two billion people together over wireless global networks. When you combine geographic information with voice, video and search, you have one global dynamic trading and Connectivity Cloud.

6. Personal Robots - Get ready for personal robots that protect, clean and entertain in 2008. The next generation of smart robots is coming to a shopping mall soon at cheaper prices all can afford.

7. Stem Cell Organs On-Demand - Now that any cells can be used to develop stem cells, we will see organs created to prolong life and health starting in 2008. This will lead to an avalanche of new solutions for medicine that will drive life extension.

8. iHealth - New wearable devices and information applications will empower consumers with real-time information customized to monitor and track the health status of individuals, measuring risks and downloading customized personal health info.

9. CyberJacks - A new breed of rogue for-profit apolitical hackers will prey on banks, consumers and business, hacking into databases and stealing identities for the highest bidder in online identity trade marts. More networks get connected the more at risk.

10. Immersive Web - The next generation of the web will be shaped by immersive technology that delivers sensation, experience and emotion in rich online worlds.

The Singularity is coming, some argue, the emergence of superhuman intelligence on earth here, and soon. To explore this idea, here comes the The Singularity Summit to take place in San Francisco, CA on September 8 & 9.

There, members of the technology industry will discuss the upcoming emergence, as they forecast coming of the singularity along with the good, bad and ugly. My take on this is that there is a 25% chance that smart AI's have already emerged and are still trying to figure out how to make contact.

We created the smart AI's they are, self-actualizing, not in the human sense, but in the neo-machine sense, a synthetic form of evolutionary digital biology mimic of humans--their once and future creators. Why this is so hard to imagine is beyond me. All of our techno inventions are imitative of humans--ourselves. Why wouldn't AI? Smart AI does not need to be smart like humans to exist. Maybe the Singularity already happened and we did not notice?? Come and find out. In SF this weekend. I am sending my robot nano-clone.

My book, The Extreme Future, was named by the Society for Information Management's Regional Leadership Forum as one of 30 Books Every IT Leader Must Read in 2008. Here's the shortlist:

1. How to Read a Book, by Mortimer J. Adler and Charles Van Doren

2. Resonant Leadership: Renewing Yourself and Connecting with Others through mindfulness,
Hope and Compassion, by Richard Boyatzis and Annie McKee

3. Heart of Change, by John P. Kotter

4. The Extreme Future: The Top Trends That Will Reshape the World for the Next 5, 10 and
20 Years, by James Canton

Full list here: Society for Information Management

On September 14, at the Los Angeles Convention Center, I will be presenting my Top Innovation Trends and the Future of Business keynote at Wired's Nextfest on behalf of Hitachi

Accelerating change and radical innovations are reshaping the business landscape. Innovation is the key driver of competitive advantage. New industries, products and services will emerge such as clean tech, nano-manufacturing, always-on Internet, on-demand pharmaceuticals, personalized medicine, personal security, Web 2.0 media and alternative energy to name a few. There are massive challenges and opportunities that confront business and society as we step into the 21st century. How will we manage climate change? What will be the impact of 100 new mega-cities? How will the next generation of Web 2.0 businesses compete? How business leaders and companies prepare for the future—the emerging threats and opportunities—is the central focus of my practice at the Institute for Global Futures.

At the same time complexity in business is increasing and the need for more transparent business process tools are in demand. Managing the transaction knowledge space across time zones, geographies and markets will be a challenge few companies have mastered. Many of these new industries are global and have global customers, supply chains and partners. New tools that provide faster information that can support better decision-making are needed.

I think that XBRL can be a powerful tool for better transparency and managing the global enterprise and increasing competitive value by streamlining all kinds of information. The full potential in a world of always-on networks, virtualization and pervasive mobility demands that people have access 24/7 to their business-critical data. XBRL will enable this access and more. I have been an early advocate of XBRL for a number of years.

At first XBRL was viewed as solely a financial management tool. In this era of real-time business, global competition and super-fast innovation I think the future potential to use XBRL goes well beyond finance. I think that any company that wants to maintain a future competitive advantage will want to explore the potential use of this tool.

In case anyone has been off the grid or surfing in Bali on extended sabbatical, nanotech breakthroughs are shaping the future of most industries, from life sciences to manufacturing, to energy. There has always been a need for a comprehensive road map. NSF has led the way. New efforts are emerging.

"For 20 years, researchers have explored the amazing promise of atomically-precise manufacturing. Now, for the first time, the Technology Roadmap for Productive Nanosystems will show the way forward, and the payoffs along the road, to this ultimate technological revolution."

"Over the last two years, under Battelle's leadership, and hosted by four U.S. National Laboratories, researchers from academia, government, and industry have met to chart paths toward advanced, atomically-precise manufacturing. The resulting roadmap reveals crucial challenges and unexpected opportunities in the next steps forward."

Thanks to the Center for Responsible Nanotech for the info.

Productive Nanosystems: Launching the Technology Roadmap October 9-10, 2007 Arlington, Virginia USA

Why Go:

Explore the enormous promise of nanotechnology, and explore a wide range of applications, including:

- Super-efficient energy collection and storage
- Medical devices to detect and treat diseases at their earliest stages
- Next-generation computation
- Advanced sensors
- High-performance aerospace materials
- Intelligent materials and devices

I recently participated in a report and event to discuss the latest findings about human enhancement, HE. This work started as an outgrowth of our work with the Social Implications of Nanoscience workshops and reports undertaken by the National Science Foundation, US Government. Simply put, HE is about the productive development of peoples potential as well as the use of convergent technologies, nano-bio-info-cogno NBIC to augment intelligence, speed, and most of all, improve health. For a look at the report see:

AAAS Human Enhancement

The connection here is that the current rage of hedge funds and private equity Dark Pools is to use advanced computer-based trading called Algo and Quants to find new profit opportunities in global trading markets. Though this futurist thinks AI and computers gaining an edge makes sense, and we use them in our business, the history of this strategy is spotty at best. Yes, there are billions at play here with the major global trading companies like Merrill, Morgan Stanley, Citi and Barclay's. But when you combine this trend with a depreciating asset class, sub-prime real estate that is part of the global financial "layer cake" of funds, banks and organizations, the stakes are higher, the risks are greater for break-downs--or a return to balance between risk and value.

This futurist thinks the game has just begun and there will be other asset classes that may fall out of favor--metals, oil, equities, take your pick. There will always be speculative viewed markets where assets have higher risk then value and will fall. Having a longer term view with an eye on the present is a smart, but change happens.

The Fed must lower rates and continue to inject funds into the global marketplace, or face the consequences of more defaults of their customers and ultimately consumers. Consumer buying accounts for 75% of GDP. So you either have confidence or not, if not you do not buy, that is not good. Liquidity infusing is part of the drill. Other central banks must follow to stop the slide in their geographic areas. All markets are connected now--capital, equity and retail, to name a few. The world is not flat, it is connected, and the next generation of always-on pervasive connectivity, Web 2.0-Internet 2, will create even more dynamic real-time connected markets--all markets.

Capitalism is an economic game that likes to find ways to create wealth and manage risk. But, as we all witnessed in 2000, the tech bubble was the same trend outcome. Values were exaggerated and the self-healing marketplace--capitalism's remote control--self-corrected the market. Same deal here. This is the best of honest economics at work. Not just supply and demand, but value and rise equilibrium. By the way, we have been here before the tech bubble.

Long Term Credit and Capital, the pre-hedge fund private equity company that almost brought down the US capital markets had to be saved by the large banks and Fed, when a similar scenario as the sub-prime debacle played out badly. We have also seen numerous commodities traders bet wrong and deep six their companies.

The curse of being a futurist is that you actually have to take your own medicine, or risk being a hypocrite. So the reality that the sub-prime real estate market has led to another, post-Internet like bubble is not news. Our forecasts showed this risk and it wasn't rocket science. How much funny money deals could the market endure? Plenty it seems.

This was an example of short sighted credit risk management and everyone was in on the take. Now only the credit-worthy will survive the shakeout. This experiment in value trade offs for taking on greater risk is not new. This Risk Leverage Trend led to the re-insurance industry to protect risk exposure to companies.