Dr. James Canton

Web 2.0: The Future of the Internet

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Radical evolution of the Internet will continue to transform business, communications and society in fundamental ways. This keynote forecasts the key trends that will shape the Internet--starting with Web 2.0 and going deep into the future--telepresence, social graph, virtual reality, social networking, pervasive mobility, sensing and the impact on consumers.

Dr. James Canton
CEO
Institute for Global Futures

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Institute for Global Futures Overview and Innovation

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CIO Interviews Dr. Canton on the Future of IT

1 A Futurist Weighs in on Techies' Tomorrows

Dr. James Canton of the Institute of Global Futures tells what IT folks should be doing to lead the future.

Dr. James Canton has made a living out of predicting the future: He's the CEO of the Institute of Global Futures, a Fortune 1000 advisor, author of such books as The Extreme Future and Technofutures, and an advisor to the new Google- and NASA-backed Singularity University.

Despite the bleak economy and uncertain future, technology is key to our future, says Canton. Because of that tech workers and IT leaders are in a unique position to create opportunities for themselves. He weighed in on which trends were most important to techies.

Innovation, Enterprise 2.0 and the Crucial Need for Wireless

One of the key challenges facing businesses today is they don't always understand how even in turbulent times innovation can be a driver of sustainability as well as competitive advantage. It's a way to find new revenue and new customers. Use technology as a tool to grow—that is my mantra of how to get through this turbulent time. Many businesses will immediately start cutting back on budgets and IT and cutting people, but that has historically been the wrong way to act to crisis. The right way to react to a crisis, especially this one, is to reassess your IT strategy: Does it drive the business? IT organizations must ask themselves how they can improve productivity and address cost effectiveness as well as leverage innovation for value and profitability.

Web 2.0 innovations for the enterprise represent a fantastic opportunity to serve customers better, manage knowledge, and to be more effective at finding new opportunities. Web 2.0 tools can help us learn about the customers we have now, the customers we don't have, the markets we serve now, the markets we should be serving. Same for products and services. There are opportunities in Second Life, wikis, integrating new communication platforms such as Twitter and predictive analytics. One huge problem IT can solve for the enterprise is to be able to monetize and make more meaning out of information; Web 2.0 tools are an important way to do this.

To find out which Web 2.0 tools are right for you company, understand which tools your customers are spending their time with. That will lead you to understanding their culture better and also how to touch them better and which Web 2.0 applications your company should be paying attention to.

Another IT innovation is pervasive wireless technology. IT shops should be looking at wireless technology as a way to link customer, partner and company information. Right now everyone has wireless access, everybody's got a Blackberry or iPhone device—but these wireless devices have not been integrated into the IT architecture. IT needs to make it so you can access the data warehouse, search for inventory, identify knowledge resources or do group CRM from a wireless device.

I was talking with General Mills about this need to integrate wireless tech platforms so that they'll be fully interoperable with their global supply chain. We were looking at their global supply chain and realizing that their executives and managers, who are increasingly in the field, need to be able to have more real-time access to actionable data that they can use. General Mills is one of the key companies on the leading edge and they are going to increasingly create this capability.

IT's Opportunities in the Downturn

This extreme economy presents a fantastic opportunity to be able to refresh, realign and transform the value proposition of IT, but that will mean everyone in IT needs to rethink their role in the organization. So number one is that IT embraces their role as thought leader and visionary. This means aligning IT with the business strategy and creating new ideas that drive competitive value and profitability for the enterprise, and then justifying IT in that light. IT needs to take another look at where the company's products and services are in light of the corporate mission, and figure out how to find new IT-enabled value to grow the organization.

In this turbulence there are many different innovations other than the traditional ones people are working on like virtualization, SaaS, green IT and other things. Now these are all wonderful and important. But that's not why someone's going to keep you around. Someone's going to keep you around because you're showing how to migrate a CRM platform to a wiki and you're enabling the freeing up of knowledge or enabling the organization to realize competitive advantage; in other words, using such tools as enterprise 2.0 or predictive analytics to do better data mining, customer mining or similar to be able to identify where the next market, customer group, product/service extension is.

I'm really calling for IT leaders to be the ones to walk into the CEO's or other leaders' office and say, look we've identified a new customer group, we've identified some new product or service opportunities. We've identified new markets that we are not competing in but that we should be, and here's how it works: then using innovation to go after those.

I think part of the problem that IT leaders are facing is there's a lot of innovation out there, but the question is, Which is the right innovation to leverage for business and competitive value? You need to ask, What are those key innovations that will create the most value in shortest amount of time. To learn that, invite yourself to visioning and strategy meetings in other parts of the organization that traditionally you don't talk to as much. If you're an IT leader who has not spent time with customers in a while, go do that; that is very critical, actually touching and communicating and living with and spending time with customers and what their needs are. But also spending time with the folks in the organization you don't normally spend time with. What's happening in marketing? What's happening in finance? What's going on in service or product delivery? Understand what their challenges are because that will help clarify for IT leaders what innovations should be created or applied.

A Look Into the Crystal Ball

Different flavors of encryption will increasingly become important. Right now, the largest elephant in the room is that we're not winning the war on encryption, our systems are still vulnerable. Unfortunately as more of our systems become Web-centric and interoperable, as more things get connected, more systems are going to get hacked. Issues such as identity theft and privacy, inappropriate access to data, even industrial espionage: These are on the uptrend.

You're going to also hear a lot more about web 3.0, driven by the semantic web, something that will be emerging pretty quickly here.

Also, the mashup of geospatial and GPS. WalMart started the drive forward in terms of RFID and pulled it back, but inevitably this mashup of geospatial information and the very fast evolution of GPS and that colliding with RFID. RFID chips are down to 19 cents, when they get down to 1 cent, you're going to see a massive embrace.

Singularity—when AI based computers and networks rival or surpass human intelligence—wins the top prize for outrageous ideas of the year. But this quest to better understand complexity, accelerated technology and the future of artificial intelligence will change our world. We live in a time when emerging supercomputing systems rival the speed of human thought and that rival a certain degree of cognitive intelligence, so that may be on top of either the hype mountain or the top of the reality mountain for the near future. This idea of future trends in supercomputing that evolve into super intelligence has captured people's imagination. We will need singularity computing to manage the future grand challenges of climate change, global commerce and the infrastructure of megacities, as examples.

Another key trend that's happening much quicker than I would've thought is convergence of platforms. As all of these platforms converge in a kind of multimedia Web-driven ecosphere, it's going to create a very different marketplace for knowledge and for things. Shortly everything will have an IP address—every object, every piece of clothing, every product, every device, everything will have an IP address. Then everything will have the ability to be interoperable with everything else.

The implications for IT leaders in a world with pervasive connected intelligence represents fantastic new business and career opportunities. You've got 4 billion cell phones on the planet today, 2 billion people on the Internet, within five years, 90 percent of those cell phones will be Internet transaction devices—we're talking about potentially 5 billion cell phones, 5 billion users on the Internet. I think this is happening much faster than is reported in the media, and IT leaders need to be ready for this accelerated, fast convergence to be able to rethink, embrace and use this IT revolution.

You have this whole evolution in healthcare, which is largely driven by IT and is all about leveraging knowledge and information faster. There's going to be a greater need for data warehousing in the area of healthcare than in any other area in the next couple years. Also, I'm forecasting that personalized medicine is going to be part of a $4 trillion marketplace in the next eight years, and it's all IT driven. It's just beginning now.

By Diann Daniel

Global Trends Report 2009

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Each year since 1990, Institute for Global Futures publishes the top forecasts for the next year in the Global Trends Report 2009 ©. These trends and predictions are designed to give people and business a heads-up on what's next in the economy, technology and society. As featured in his keynote, The Extreme Future, this year's Global Trends Report is your wakeup call on the key trends that will shape the coming year.

Dr. Canton identifies the coming year's top global trends as follows:

Managing Complexity - This year, more then ever, the top skill that everyone will need is managing complexity. The complexity of dealing with immense and fast changes, the economic crisis, the job market, global competition and new technologies will require a high level of complexity management. Survival may well be dependent on how well a Complexity Manager you are. 

High Agility Enterprise - Fast to change. Anticipatory of what's next. Exceeding expectations. New innovations to serve customers, find profit, accelerate transactions, release creativity and empower employees and customers will transform business in 2009. Innovations like customer care portals, Wikis, Mashups, Predictive Analytics, Social Networking, Web 2.0 processes and products will drive competitive advantage this year. Business agility will be propelled by elegant, integrative Clouds, adaptive and innovative business IT processes. This is the year to migrate to more web-centric business transformation.

Global Connectivity - Information will find you. The pervasive mobile Internet is coming in 2009 and will connect everyone in business, customers—everywhere, and all the time, across borders, supply chains and industries. Entirely new business models, supply chains, customer care networks, markets and industries will be born from this always-on global connectivity. New business models that deliver real-time value, all the time anywhere and everywhere, will redefine markets—get ready now for this shift.

Blended Reality - The convergence of TV, computer, Net, wireless, telephony across interactive fast real-time broadband networks with GPS information will become a Blended Reality lifestyle in 2009. Rich media interactivity, real-time messaging, rich media and virtual worlds are coming. This lifestyle cuts across geography, markets and cultures. Blended Reality is the new global lifestyle and demographic that will emerge.

Navigating the New Risk Landscape - Here comes the Post-Economic Meltdown—OK let's get on with it. Every business and everyone will need a new strategy to deal with navigating risk and opportunity this year. It will change everything and touch everyone in 2009. Dealing with the aftershocks to the economic meltdown, which started in 2008, will be top of mind for every business and individual. Smarter moves and greater risk management will be prudent advice for this coming year. Navigating the new risks, new challenges and new threats will be key. We will look differently at risk—even missing some opportunities. Understanding how to navigate the changes and challenges of the new risk landscape will be essential this year. Know when to risk and when to hold on.

Personalized Medicine - People are living longer and spending more to enhance their cognitive, emotional and physical performance. Radical new choices are coming that will challenge our values and laws. From prevention, to mapping your personal genome, to life-extension, longevity medicine is coming fast. This global marketplace will be the largest in the 21st century, driven by Boomer's wealth and biotech's future innovations in stem cells, synthetic biology, and cloning that will transform health care making it boldly predictive and personalized. How about a new kidney for Christmas?

The MegaCity Consumer - From China to India, to Latin America and the EU, there is a new consumer demographic that is emerging driven by massive urban migration. They live in megacities, are highly mobile and are transnational. The MegaCity Consumers are the new middle class, tech savvy, highly mobile and entrepreneurial. They are driving up demand for products and services that could reach over 120 countries, generating billions by 2035. This new global middle class is being born and they want the prosperity and quality of life that is defined by the consumer marketplace.

Beware Dark Networks - Security will be an increased risk factor for business in 2009 given the vulnerability of computer networks that increasingly connect us all. From hackers to identity thieves, to terrorists and criminals, the future is bright for the Dark Networks. Business needs to invest in deeper innovations in security and take it to the next level. More sophisticated and complex fraud, theft and terror attacks will threaten modern society, so be prepared and invest now in prevention.

                                                    Green & Clean Sustainability - Billions will be invested in alternative energy, clean tech and climate change in 2009. The new administration will embrace, whole hog, the sustainability trend. We will capitalize on cleaning up the planet, reducing foreign oil dependence and reducing global warming. Customers are going green.  Consumers will want increased corporate accountability in protecting and saving the environment. Smart companies will now leverage Green & Clean policies, products and services—and be held accountable if they are not.

Strategic Vision: Future Readiness - Most businesses are not ready for the future. Witness the economic beating of this past year. Each business needs to develop a predictive awareness—a sensing capability of what is next. Developing a capacity to see what's next and prepare by monitoring trends, developing business foresight with an eye towards the longer more strategic view will be essential to success in 2009. New profit opportunities will come from those companies that see the future first and become Future-Ready—anticipating, adapting and evolving before the competition.

About The Extreme Future

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List of Chapters, table of contents

In the post-9/11 world every forecasting book that came before 9/11 is obsolete. Our world is constantly buffeted by new and dramatic change that we can't fully grasp. The changes come in extremes: faster, bigger, more illuminating and more devastating than ever before. And all of these changes are tame compared to what is coming in the Extreme Future.

In his forthcoming new book, The Extreme Future, Dr. Canton breaks new ground in boldly analyzing the key trends that will affect business and society, touching every person, in the coming decade. The fusion of emerging and future trends---from customer changes to technology and science will be a guide to the 21st century.

The Top 10 Trends of The Extreme Future

1. Fueling the Future - The energy crisis, the post-oil future, and the future of energy alternatives like hydrogen. The critical role that energy will play in every aspect of our lives in the 21st century.
2. The Innovation Economy - The transformation of the global economy based on the convergence of free trade, technology and democracy, driving new jobs, new markets, globalization, competition, peace and security. The Four Power Tools of the Innovation Economy are Nano-Bio-IT-Neuro.
3. The Next Workforce - How the workforce of the U.S. is becoming more multicultural, more female and more Hispanic. Why the future workforce must embrace innovation to become globally competitive.
4. Longevity Medicine - The key forces that will radically alter medicine such as nanotech, neurotech, and genomics, leading to longer and healthier lives.
5. Weird Science - How science will transform every aspect of our lives, culture and economy—from teleportation to nanobiology to multiple universes.
6. Securing the Future - The top threats to our freedom and our lives, from hackers to terrorists to mind control. Defining the risk landscape of the 21st century.
7. The Future of Globalization - The new realities of global trade and competition; the rise of China and India; the clash of cultures and ideologies; and the cultural-economic battle for the future.
8. The Future of Climate Change - How the environment is changing and how we need to prepare for increased global warming, pollution, and threats to biodiversity.
9. The Future of the Individual - The risks and challenges from institutions, governments, and ideologies in the struggle for human rights and the freedom of the individual in the 21st century.
10. The Future of America - The power of America and its destiny to champion global democracy, innovation, human rights and free markets.

Copyright © 2007 Dr. James Canton & IGF
Editorial Book Reviews of The Extreme Future

"In his latest book, international business futurist, James Canton takes readers on a dizzying ride through hundreds of technological, govern- mental, medical, environmental, and economic trends that will, in Canton's view, reshape the world over the course of the next 20 years. Roughly half of the world popula- tion, some 3 billion people, is under the age of 25, and approximately a quarter of the world youth population subsists on less than a dollar a day. By 2025, two out of every three people on the planet will live in a water-stressed area, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, eastern Asia, and southeastern Asia. At the same time, technological innovation and globalization will result in more than a billion millionaires by 2025. Break- throughs in genomics and stem-cell therapies will extend the human life- span in the West beyond 150 years, creating new problems. These and hundreds of other facts, figures, forecasts, and predications are part of what Canton calls “The Extreme Future.†World Future Society

"Canton's background in future-planning consultancy began when he studied under Alvin Toffler in the 1970's - and it shows in this big-picture take on the world of tomorrow. Taken individually, none of the trends Canton believes will shape the upcoming decades are surprising: major crises brought on by energy shortages and climate change; economic transformation wrought by globalization; and the "ware on terror" has barely started. But he recognizes that the future is created by a "convergence" in which these developments interact. Canton's imagination runs in a dozen directions at once, peppering the margins of his vision with media headlines and short vignettes from a science-fictional future. Some of these are more believable than others - hydrogen-based energy systems by 2040, sure, but drugs that will keep us from even thinking antigovernment thoughts? Canton's goal, however, isn't predicting, it's convincing Americans to take a more active role in envisioning and safeguarding the 21st century before somebody else does. His lively scenarios are designed to spark debates, and they surely will." Publishers Weekly

Book List

"Canton, global futurist and business advisor, offers a forecasting road map for the twenty-first century that includes 10 top trends of the extreme future. These trends are the critical role of energy; information technology and networks; biotechnology; the manipulation of matter at the atomic scale (producing new drugs, fuels, materials, and machines); and the use of devices, drugs, and materials to heal and enhance mental performance. Other trends are the emerging workforce, which will be more multicultural, female, and Hispanic; longer and healthier lives; the critical importance of science; major threats, including hackers, terrorists, and mind control; and the new realities of global trade and competition. Finally, he cites preparation for increased global warming, the struggle for human rights and individual freedom, and the consequences of future interaction between America and China. Canton is optimistic about the future and believes Americans in general are, too. He observes, "They inspire change and innovation, creating a vision that suggests what is coming next will be good." Important and fascinating perspective!" Book List

Library Journal

"A sort of Extreme Future Shock, this work talks about how such issues as climate change, terrorism, shifting populations, and the rise of China will affect all of us." Library Journal

SciTech Book News

"Writing primarily for corporate executives, Canton (chairman and CEO of the Institute for Global Futures), a one-time student of futurist Alvin Toffler, predicts the top trends of the "extreme future," which is defined by speed, complexity, risk, change, and surprise. His predictions are presented in ten chapters that grapple with energy issues, the emerging innovation economy, the changing American workforce, longevity medicine technology, emerging science ("from teleportation to nanobiology to multiple universes"), security issues, economic and cultural globalization, climate change, the changing role of the individual, and Sino-American relations. " SciTech Book News

CNN

" Dr. James Canton author of the"The EXTREME FUTURE said you're going to hear a lot more about disease management in the very near future, particularly as we unlock the human genome.So personalized medicine, this fusion of combining biotechnology with healthcare, will make for a very different kind of healthcare that will be more precise, more cost effective and ultimately is going to help people live longer" CNN

CNN

"Once medicine becomes boldly proactive, then you're talking about eliminating 70, 80 percent of diseases.Canton believes the human life span will increase and that the ensuing societal changes will be monumental." CNN

CIO Insight

"Canton's new book real value lies in reinforcing the hard truth that "long-range planning" means more than what will happen beyond the next quarter." CIO Insight

INC Magazine

"There's a tremendous move toward green sustainability," says James Canton."There are going to be tremendous new business opportunities." INC Magazine

NY Daily News

"This event is a watershed moment for America," says James Canton.The birth of the 300 millionth American will signal the real beginning of the 21st century, when people's talents will drive the economy." NY Daily News

National Defense Journal

"James Canton, estimates that half of the U.S. gross domestic product is driven by "innovative" industries, and about 75 percent of them are being addressing the needs of the military" National Defense Journal

Philadelphia Inquirer

"Canton's list of the top nine jobs in the 2015 workforce suggests how dramatically life is changing. Those include neuro-medical techs, personal security techs, organ cloners, biofuture therapists and quantum scientists." Philadelphia Inquirer

Fort-Worth Star Telegram

"The future that Canton writes about is no distant science-fiction world, he says. His objective is to alert America to what needs to be done to make it ready and able to meet the twin challenges of innovation and globalization." Fort-Worth Star Telegram

McClatchy-Tribune

"This look at the challenges that confront America and the world today should find a place on the must-read list of all corporate leaders and public policymakers. Its greatest value lies in its showing how to think futuristically in order to promote profitability, sustainability and freedom." McClatchy-Tribune

European Chemical News

"The boomers will transform healthcare - they want to live forever with the vitality of a 30-year-old. These people will be a key economic driver for the development of predictive medicines, nanotechnology, biotechnology, new medical devices and lifestyle pharma." European Chemical News

National Mortgage News

"Customers are demanding change and mortgage bankers have to make a choice whether or not they want to lead clients into the future or play catch-up a few years from now, according to James Canton" National Mortgage News

Kudos, what they are saying about The Extreme Future

"Lots of folks talk about the future. Dr. James Canton's The Extreme Future takes you there, outlining in vivid detail the top trends transforming society and the marketplace. This book is visually stunning and beautifully organized. If you care about the future – and who can afford not to? – this book is for you."
Patricia Aburdene
Author, Megatrends 2010: The Rise of Conscious Capitalism and Co-Author Megatrends 2000

"Dr. Canton's account of the future of healthcare is chilling ... not because his vision is fearsome, but because his predictions are fast becoming fact."
Terry Fassburg
Vice President, Brand Communications, Philips Electronics

“This book is your essential guide to the future. It is an insightful, straightforward, clear view into the amazing and surprising future that is closing in on us fast. It is essential reading to understand the revolutionary impact on business and beyond.”
Toby Redshaw
Corporate Vice President, I.D.E.A.S., Motorola

“Canton&srquo;s optimistic prescription for a successful global future comes as a refreshing change from the often dismal reports alive in the world. Canton&srquo;s intelligence, wit, and passion readily found in the numerous talks he gives worldwide comes through in his prose.”
Barbara A. Propes
President, World Affairs Councils of America

“Canton does a great job identifying the top trends that will shape our future. If you want to prepare for the Extreme Future, read this book.”
Rudy Burger
CEO & Chairman, U.S. Development Partners

Click Here to Learn More About Dr. Canton's Book Technofutures

Four Key Benefits

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1. Learn how to leverage key future trends and innovations to create a competitive-edge.
    
2. Develop a clear picture - a strategic vision, of how emerging and future trends may change your customers and your marketplace.
    
3. Better identify trends within your company and relate them to your career.
    
4. Learn how to adapt today and prepare for the future business and personal challenges of the 21st century.  

Dr. James Canton
CEO
Institute for Global Futures

The Future of Healthcare III

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