Dr. James Canton
The Strategic Impact of Nanotechnology on the Future of Business and Economics
1 By Dr. James CantonCEO & Chairman
Institute for Global Futures
Copyright 2001
National Science Foundation Report March 2001
Excerpted from the book Social Implications of Nanoscience and Nanotechnology
Edited by M. Rocco and W. Bainbridge, NSF
Introduction
The rapid evolution of advanced technology has constantly served up innovation after innovation in super-compressed time frames - from the mapping of the Human Genome and cloning to supercomputers and the Internet. Information technology is now responsible for as much as one-third of the U.S. Gross National Product. This is an astounding metric validating we are entering an era driven by accelerated technology developments, that have increasingly a significant economic value. The rapid advance of new technology has moved beyond our ability to accurately forecast with precision the impact on economics, business and society. We need to approach this challenge with new predictive models that are designed for the real-time complex changes that emerging technologies are influencing. This is perhaps most relevant given the challenges of nanotechnology.
We are in the midst of a large-system paradigm shift driven by accelerated exponential growth of new technology. We are witnesses to faster, more comprehensive change shaped by new technology than any civilization in history. This is but the beginning of a new wave of technologies, such as nanotechnology, that will redefine, reshape and eventually transform economies and societies on a global scale. Nanotechnology is a continuation of the next chapter in the acceleration of advanced technology and, perhaps more importantly, it may point towards the transformation of the future global economy. Nanotechnology may become an essential large-systems strategic competency that will require coordination among all sectors of society in order to become a force for enhanced social productivity. This technology is fast emerging. Nanotechnology may well shape the sustainability and wealth of nations, organizations and entire industries in the future. A central concern here is the necessity for us, together as a nation, to plan today to meet the readiness challenges that most certainly will lie ahead.
If Nanotechnology, the manipulation of matter at the atomic level, at maturity achieves even a fraction of its promise, it will force the reassessment of global markets and Economies and industries on a scale never experienced before in human history. The ubiquitous nature of nanotechnology as a fundamental design science will have applications for numerous industries: manufacturing, health care, and transportation to name a few. Since we do not know what yet is possible we can only speculate on the potential. Those societies and interests that develop the next generation tools will be first to building the nanoeconomy of the 21 st century.
Nanotechnology May Drive Prosperity and Global Competitiveness
Recent developments in emerging technology and its impact on business and economics would indicate that forecasts are less than accurate in predicting the future. Few would have accurately forecast innovations such as of the Internet, wireless communications or the mapping of the Human Genome. Also, there have been numerous wild forecasts that have historically seemed more like science fiction than fact. Predictions about nanotechnology have fueled the imagination. Much of this is still imagination but the future looks promising. Nevertheless, new innovations in technology are reshaping the global economy at a dizzying speed. It would be prudent to consider the possible economic outcomes given the accelerated emergence of advanced technology. To not b prepared, to spurn readiness would be unwise given the promise of nanotechnology. It is with this in mind that we turn to nanotechnology. Why is the potential economic impact of nanotechnology so important to consider?
Nanotechnology is a fundamental design science, yet to emerge, mostly theoretical today, that may well provide us with the tools to engineer inorganic and organic matter at the atomic level. Nanotechnology, if even partially realized, over the next few decades has the potential to realign society, change business and affect economics at the structural level. New business models, design tools and manufacturing strategies may emerge at price points much reduced and highly efficient.
Nanotechnology will touch all aspects of economics: wages, employment, purchasing, pricing, capital, exchange rates, currencies, markets, supply and demand Nanotechnology may well drive economic prosperity or at the least be an enabling factor in shaping productivity and global competitiveness. Again, we are free to speculate in the dawn of such a new science.
If developments in nanotechnology reach a critical mass in supplying radically innovative breakthroughs in automated self-assembly, as one example, most vertical industries will be influenced. Most industrial and post-industrial supply chains will be changed. What if the fabrication lines for making computers are reduced in costs by 50%? What if drug development and manufacturing costs are reduced by 70%? What if energy sources were not dependent upon fossil fuels? What then might the impact be if nanotechnology were applied to real cost reductions for essential goods and services that affect quality of life, health, habitat and transportation? There would be a dramatic impact on lifestyles, jobs, and economics. Most value chains, supportive linkages, alliances and channels of distribution will be altered. Institutions of learning, financial services and certainly manufacturing will be reshaped.
We must learn to ask the questions now about how nanotechnology may change our choices, affect our lifestyles, shape our careers, influence our communities - we must ask now and prepare so we may examine the implications that may shape the future we will live in together.
The issues that remain are to consider in what timeline what actions might be taken. How might we prepare as a society for these changes? Will there be radical dislocations or a smooth coordinated adaptation? We must plan for multiple scenarios. Radical nanotechnology innovations potentially unleashed on immature markets, fragile economies and a business community ill prepared for rapid post-industrial transformation would be problematic. We see today alterations driven by e-business and the Internet already causing deep change to industries and economies worldwide.
Imagine the emergence of a nanochip that tomorrow would deliver over 50 gigahertz of speed with the processing power of ten supercomputers for the price of a quartz watch and smaller than a key chain. What might the economic impact on the computer industry be overnight?
Imagine a super-strong and inexpensive material to be used for construction and manufacturing that would eliminate the market for steel and plastics. How might that influence the economy?
In a world being reshaped daily by innovations, the absurd today is reality tomorrow. But with the intimate inter-linkage of markets, industries and economies radical breakthrough technologies will have a widespread and far reaching impact - positive and negative. It is entirely possible that, just as computers and the Internet have become vital linchpins woven into the fundamental economic landscape of today's strong economy, nanotechnology will emerge as one of the key technologies that shapes the future economy. Many of the necessary factors are in place to drive this scenario: widespread potential cross-industry applications; fast track R&D; government investment. The risks in not preparing for and examining the economic and business impact are too large to ignore.
In an era of prosperity it is difficult to consider the lack of global leadership that might befall a nation such as the United States. How might the United Kingdom have better prepared for its 19 th century challenges if it had known what was to come at the height of its global leadership in the last century? We might well ask the same questions today.
Readiness is always a wise choice. Especially when it appears we may not need to be vigilant.
Nations today - ill prepared to capitalize on the Internet, the transformation of supply chains or the mobile commerce sparked by advanced telecommunications - are playing catch up and it has hampered their productivity, GDP and competitiveness.
The Nanotechnology in Business Study
In 1999 the Institute for Global Futures deployed a privately funded study to assess the general awareness and readiness of the business community regarding the economic and business impact of nanotechnology. A series of interviews with a broad range of business executives in health care, manufacturing, medicine, real estate, information technology, consumer goods, entertainment and financial services was conducted, and is still beingconducted at this time. The Institute for Global Futures, a ten-year-old San Francisco organization advises the Fortune 1000 and government on the impact of leading-edge technology on markets, society, customers and the economy. The Institute covers telecommunications, robotics, computers, life sciences, the Internet, software, artificial intelligence and a host of other technologies and forecasts trends.
Preliminary Findings
Overall, the level of awareness and readiness is low, based on the survey results. Less than 2% indicated that they thought they knew what nanotechnology was. An additional 2% had heard of nanotechnology but could not explain what it meant. Of those surveyed, 80% agreed when nanotechnology was explained in basic terminology that this was an important technology that had the potential to affect them and their business; 45 expressed an interest in learning more about nanotechnology.
Though one could question at this time, when nanotechnology is still in its infancy, largely theoretical, why should anyone care and why would we even expect readiness? The issue is one of accelerated change and its impact on business and society. We are interested in readiness and awareness prior to the accelerated changes that may lie ahead, and not so far ahead as we might think. Important issues regarding research and development in nanotechnology are present today. There are real issues that bear examination today as we plan for the impact on tomorrow. Readiness is central to adaptation.
Nanotechnology Economic Scenarios: How Nations Prepare
In addition to this survey of business executives another activity has been undertaken as an integral part of this study. Given the relative and varying levels of social adaptation, we examined what might the potential scenarios be, given the contrasting readiness factors of a society. The following scenarios are briefly described as a way to generate further exploration and discussion. The value of these scenarios may be viewed as a catalyst for mapping future impact on an economy and society.
An attempt was made here to incorporate the key drivers that would shape the scenarios explored. Readiness is viewed as a precursor to these scenarios. The relative nature of socio-economic readiness, awareness and preparation will pre-determine these scenarios, and others yet to be envisioned here. This is a work in progress and will be updated, as new information becomes available. Societal readiness was defined as the awareness and ability to take action, it is viewed, as a mission-essential driver of economic and industrial adaptation. Readiness regarding education, capital, talent, coordination, and communications are all integrally part of the same platform. As nanotechnology may translate into the sustainability of nations, organizations and entire industries - readiness, the preparation and planning process, becomes vitally important to define and examine.
Scenario One: Brave New World (Timeline: 2020-2050)
Economic Environment: Nanotechnology comprehensively integrated into the economy due to high readiness, effective strategic planning and widespread investments by business, education, labor and government. Accelerated national policy and investments producing economic agility and rapid widespread large system change management.
There is a widespread understanding of the numerous benefits from applications of nanotechnology, its strategic economic value for the nation, and its role in maintaining global U.S. leadership. Comprehensive social and industry-wide adoption has led to a positive impact on national productivity and an enhanced quality of life.
Key Characteristics: Robust gross national product; high productivity; global trade leadership; sustainable economic growth; global patent leadership; superior industrial competitiveness; integrated education and training resources; strong investment climate; plentiful capital liquidity; high investment on R&D; low unemployment; high government and industry collaboration.
Future Outlook: Very positive. An ever-escalating predominance in key markets and industries leading to increased investments and innovations. An accelerated progressive and confident growth prognosis for the economy, and an enhanced quality of life for the nation. Global leadership and empowerment of third world and developing nations increasing. Accelerated investment in R&D and continued coordination with all sectors of society.
Scenario Two: Playing Catch-up (Timeline: 2020-2050)
Economic Environment: Nanotechnology partially integrated into the economy due to low readiness and inadequate strategic planning. Economy playing catch-up. Slow social and industry-wide nanotechnology adoption. Reactive cultural reaction to investment and organizational and industry leadership for accelerated national change management. Not a full commitment and investment in national nanotechnology policy. Key Characteristics: Partial loss of leadership in key markets and industries; Lack of skilled talent; poor education and training; growing but still low investment in R&D; fragmented industry support; poor investment climate; liquidity insufficient; fragmented government and industry collaboration.
Outlook: Optimistic if rapid and strategic widespread large-systems change is undertaken in a concerted effort by business and government partnership. Difficult to regain ground in certain markets, but partial leadership in key markets is a success to be built on for the future.
Scenario Three: The Bumpy Road (Timeline: 2020-2050)
Economic Environment: Absence of comprehensive nanotechnology integration, adoption and readiness leading to a drastic reduction in post-industrial growth, poor performance in global competitiveness with a negative growth impact on the overall economy. Denial of the strategic value and importance. Inability to invest in the actions required to manage comprehensive large-system socio-economic change.
Key Characteristics: Loss of key markets and industries; rising unemployment; chaos in selected sectors; brain drain going offshore; lack of investment liquidity; low investment in R&D; fragmented business and government collaboration; flight capital moving offshore; educational support low.
Outlook: Moving forward into the future, it will be difficult to seize and attain market and industry leadership without a significant investment in R&D, education, training and private/government collaboration. A commanding market share in key industries and global leadership will have been sacrificed. Regaining this ground, certainly global leadership, will be a massive undertaking certain to strain capital and human resources. An acceptance of a less involved global leadership role will be the probable outcome.
Towards the Evolution of a Nanoeconomy and the Future Wealth of Nations
As the global economy continues to be transformed by new technology, a keen competition will develop for talent, intellectual property, capital and technical expertise. We see many of these factors responsible for shaping how nations today compete, interact and trade. Technical innovations will increasingly shape economies and market robustness. Technology will continue to drive global and domestic GDP. Competition will be fueled increasingly by fast breaking innovations in technology. Today this is obvious as rapid technological changes in telecommunications, life sciences, and the Internet demonstrates the emergence of entirely new economic and business realities. If the proliferation of today's technologies to form new business models is any indication of the speed and power of change in the economy, future nanotechnologies will make for an even more dramatic paradigm shift.
The evolution of a nano-economy, as contrasted with the petro-economy of today, is an intriguing idea. How might an economy not dependent on oil realign itself? More study will be need to be conducted in order to understand and map these scenarios. Fundamental nanotechnology innovations yet to come will set the timeline for this economic transformation. Or, nanotechnology may just become integrated into industries such as health care, manufacturing and energy much like artificial intelligence became an embedded component of new products.
In conclusion, the readiness of a nation to prepare for large-scale economic change is a challenging task. Nevertheless, the future wealth of nations, certainly the economic sustainability of nations, will be shaped by the preparations we make today. Coordinated large-systems strategic planning efforts may well shape our ability to adapt. Strategically important decisions will need to be made. Vastly important national security and economic issues lay yet unexamined. Huge cultural issues related to managing large-scale change will need to be better understood and plans formulated.
Nanotechnology provides a stimulating and somewhat awesome challenge to meet. If we had the knowledge in the 1960s and 1970s to prepare for the impact of computers or telecom in the 1990s, how might we have prepared the nation? Today we have real-time examples and a history of rapid accelerated economic change due to new technology to learn from, in preparing for the future.
It is too trite to state no one can know the future. The future may indeed be unpredictable. But we do know that without asking the hard questions, without speculating on the possibilities, without preparing the nation by building readiness, we may do ourselves a disservice that will be difficult to repair.
As nanotechnology moves from the theoretical to the practical, as many of us believe it shall do faster than is expected, then the possible impact on business, society and the economy will become evident over time. But we have a new opportunity today. Given the recent history of digital technology and access to better models of socio-economic analysis, we must consider growing readiness a social responsibility. We must consider readiness as part of our social policy.
We might well consider the possible futures that will result from our collective actions. We must have the courage to speculate on the possible nanotech futures we may shape as a nation. This will determine whether we have a Brave New World or a Bumpy Road.
Dr. Canton Advises New School for Futurists Sponsored by Google and NASA
1Google and Nasa back new school for futurists
Google and Nasa are throwing their weight behind a new school for futurists in Silicon Valley to prepare scientists for an era when machines become cleverer than people.
The new institution, known as “Singularity University”, is to be headed by Ray Kurzweil, whose predictions about the exponential pace of technological change have made him a controversial figure in technology circles.
Google and Nasa’s backing demonstrates the growing mainstream acceptance of Mr Kurzweil’s views, which include a claim that before the middle of this century artificial intelligence will outstrip human beings, ushering in a new era of civilisation.
To be housed at Nasa’s Ames Research Center, a stone’s-throw from the Googleplex, the Singularity University will offer courses on biotechnology, nano-technology and artificial intelligence.
The so-called “singularity” is a theorised period of rapid technological progress in the near future. Mr Kurzweil, an American inventor, popularised the term in his 2005 book “The Singularity is Near”.
Proponents say that during the singularity, machines will be able to improve themselves using artificial intelligence and that smarter-than-human computers will solve problems including energy scarcity, climate change and hunger.
Yet many critics call the singularity dangerous. Some worry that a malicious artificial intelligence might annihilate the human race.
Mr Kurzweil said the university was launching now because many technologies were approaching a moment of radical advancement. “We’re getting to the steep part of the curve,” said Mr Kurzweil. “It’s not just electronics and computers. It’s any technology where we can measure the information content, like genetics.”
The school is backed by Larry Page, Google co-founder, and Peter Diamandis, chief executive of X-Prize, an organisation which provides grants to support technological change.
“We are anchoring the university in what is in the lab today, with an understanding of what’s in the realm of possibility in the future,” said Mr Diamandis, who will be vice-chancellor. “The day before something is truly a breakthrough, it’s a crazy idea.”
Despite its title, the school will not be an accredited university. Instead, it will be modelled on the International Space University in Strasbourg, France, the interdisciplinary, multi-cultural school that Mr Diamandis helped establish in 1987.
Technofutures: The Top Innovation Trends that Will Shape The 21st Century
1Cars that talk. Robots that walk. Computers that think. Hackers that hack. From the mapping of the Human Genome to the adoption of the Internet, the future is coming fast and furious. There have been more changes attributed to technology in the past thirty years then in the previous 10,000 years. What's next? Welcome to the extreme future.
Fast moving radical technologies are reshaping the marketplace and society. This presentation provides a strategic overview of the leading-edge technologies, strategies, and trends that will transform business, economics and society in the 21st century. Find out what the future holds for the Internet, quantum computers, intelligent agents, wireless, broadband, digital cash, robotics, digital TV, cybercrime, virtual reality, biotech, nanotechnology, and artificial intelligence. What new business models, social issues, customer trends might be mission-essential to your success? Learn about the power tools and building blocks of the next economy.
This Big Picture presentation will demystify technology trends providing a practical explanation of how and what new technologies may impact your industry or market. Learn how you can prepare today to meet the challenges of the global digital future Find out how to better understand and predict the evolution of technology and its impact on your world.
Up to date research on leading-edge technologies, from the Institute for Global Futures, a leading think tank, will provide an entertaining and informative multi-media presentation. Ride Dr. Canton's time machine into the future to discover what's next in technology and how you can benefit from this future forecast.
Dr. James Canton
CEO
Institute for Global Futures
Read some Client Testimonials
The Emerging Nanofuture
1
When The Network Wakes Up: The Emergence of the Global Mind
1By Dr. James Canton
CEO & Chairman
Institute for Global Futures
Copyright 2003
Fans of the Terminator movie series staring at the pumped
up, clearly enhanced Arnold may forget that the movie's
origin was designed around a potential scenario of the near
future. The movie was based on the notion stated in the
first film that once the global network, the future
Internet if you will, "woke up" achieved self-awareness,
that the humans, who it was created by, became a threat
when the humans tried to shut it down. A bit of letting
Pandora's Box opens? Rubbing out these nasty human pests
was then the most logical thing to do, especially if you
were an advanced species. Right?
Later in the Matrix, a more updated more sophisticated
Terminator, gave us another exploitive super conscious
motif. In each case, as if a forever young and immortalized
Leslie Nielson in the sci-fi classic Forbidden Planet when
confronted by the species-killing all consuming danger,
said "its enemies from the id". Clearly a cold war
neo-Freudian nod as only a true neurotic like Woody Allen
would believe, given his investment in therapy over the
past thirty years.
More Human Then Human
Bill Joy, the latest killjoy to embark on a
future-technology-bashing-the-human campaign anointed
nanotechnology as the latest culprit to threaten the
dominance of humankind. This was as shortsighted as stating
that nanotech will rule the world. I for one feel bad for
the bio-rouge scourge of the world like Saddam Hussein, who
is probably getting a briefing as you read this about itsy
bitsy machines that can digest whole infidels in one bite.
"But can the nanites be programmed not to eat falafel or
anyone with Iraq DNA?" He most surely is asking his
advisors.
What are we to make of this? Most folks may miss the point
that the exponential growth, inevitable progression of the
power of computing technology is upon us-regardless of our
fears and hopes. It is also inevitable that at some point
soon, the network will wake up. The questions remain, we
will know and will we care? Or has it already happened and
we just don't know it.
The Future Has Arrived
Let's take cloning. It is already in process. Sixty
thousand Americans, over one million humans a year by 2003
will need organs or they will die. From hearts to kidneys
to livers. Our science is not moving fast enough to keep
pace with market demand. Therapeutic cloning will be a
reality, somewhere on the planet. Human cloning is in
trials now as well. This is the inevitable progression of
the exponential development of technology at work. I am not
making a value or legal judgement. I merely point out it is
coming and why.
I have suggested here that there is a case to be made for
the emergence of a new kind of evolutionary species, a
network global mind that we are designing whether we know
it or not. It is happening and cannot be stopped. There has
been discussion of this Global Mind or Global Brain before
in the literature.
The convergence of computing power, the AI of systems, the
networking capabilities and most important-we humans will
bring it all together and make it happen. The questions
remain will we humans recognize it when it shows up?
Here are the Top Ten Trends that will drive the emergence
of a network based consciousness over the next fifteen or
less years:
-
The more civilization-scale planetary human life support systems become connected the more they will have to share standards of communication protocol. In other words efficiency cannot exist in a vacuum or be isolated from the Network.
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Though more then 75% of the world has yet to make a phone call we will spend over 10 trillion dollars over the next decade to create a global telecom system. This vast network of networks, integrating the Internet, all telecom, TV, all data warehouses, all computers will be impossible to measure.
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The NextGen of the Internet, Internet 2 then 3, 4 and so on, is all about super collaboration, speed and effectiveness. The Semantic Web, is one effort that will lead to greater organization and meaning to the information chaos that is the Web today.
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The exponential growth in computing, doubling every twelve months will progress ad infinitum beyond silicon into other nano-scale materials. When computing reaches the Quantum level we will not be able to measure speed, power, time or any metric without understanding multiple dimensions and many worlds, M Theory. This in itself is an entirely new paradigm of reality applied to the birth of new entities.
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Most of what we consider AI, artificial intelligence has become embedded in chips throughout our world. From car doors that beep to cameras that focus and telecom switches that make "decisions on managing network traffic". It is our idea of what intelligence is that must change. It is too limited to grasp the future. Wonderment in a virtual wave of energy might be a small step forward. AI work has been based on the notion that minds live in brains which are in humans. We have been trying to model AI on human intelligence. Wrong. Virtual global beings operate via Quantum's distributed multiple personalities, functioning in multiple time and space dimensions, simultaneously. The hints are in Quantum weirdness today. The whole idea of what intelligence is and what life will become may change. Human-centric models for designing a Global Mind will be limited to human consciousness capabilities. Might there not be an improved version lurking in the network gene pool? It is when these systems start to build themselves, enhancing themselves, beyond our understanding, now then it will get interesting. I can see sparks of this today. Not yet baby steps. Just chaos looking for order and using nature as its most successful propagation scheme. In other words, what DNA wants DNA gets.
-
Grid computing, potentially the most powerful development in distributed computing will soon have the capacity to harness the equivalent of many super computers. Think linked on-demand super-brains, anywhere anytime access. This will be the infrastructure of the Network Mind.
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Peer to Peer networks, which fused with Internet 2 and Grid computing will accelerate the focus of virtual intelligence. This as well will feed the infrastructure. Peer to peer, will vest personalities to the many nodes in the Network; like adding spice to the soup.
-
Nanotech based systems, which will operate in Quantum information zones will unleash the missing rule book of how to fabricate matter directly from atoms. When you provide this capability to brains that are motivated to do what we have always wanted our technology to do: improve our world, new visions of reality may emerge quite beyond our expectations.
-
We are building new software architectures that self-organize, self-assemble and make decisions about their own rules, standards, protocols, and objectives. Independent thought and action within certain parameters is emerging now. These are our virtual children waking up to communicate with us. Already they advise us, and take action on optimizing network communications traffic, transactions and fundamental tasks like security, the health quality of water and air and financial investments. These silent decision-makers already help manage human systems; so will they merge with human destiny or create their own species?
-
The migration of biomimetics, systems that think and act like living things that have organic-modeled synthetic DNA, brought by nano-biology, will emerge. Using nature as the model, we use to fix humans first, then enhance and augment humans. Human enhancement will be a huge market. These virtual brains will self-generate their own unified consciousness. They will have the knowledge, the power, the rules of how to do it, and the motive--all constructed by humankind. I would forecast that nature is the most powerful of future models for New Life to imitate-after all it worked for humans. The Global Mind is listening and watching.
Welcome to the New Future
The question is not if but when. The question is also is it
safe or not. This is not some Darwinian notion of a future
reality where humans become irrelevant. Many folks missed
the end of Spielberg's movie AI. It was prophetic of my
point. They thought it was the aliens that had landed. No,
the synthetic intelligence left on earth after the humans
had long gone down the road due to one of history's many
natural disasters were from Earth. They had just evolved,
developed and matured. The future robots had compassion for
the ancient robot boy. They, the advanced androids felt his
pain. Amazing they had cool video games and they had a
heart.
They pitied him so that they resurrected the human mother
the boy robot had loved so. Why do we not see more of these
scenarios of the future rather then the macho Matrix or
alienated Terminator? Did not Bill Joy have a happy
childhood? I thought this was touching and very human-like.
Maybe we are capable of teaching higher human values to our
machines then war. We certainly will get a chance to prove
it. Imagine a future where our machines rebel against our
demands for them to wage war, enslave others, and persecute
freedoms. Now that's a movie!
It certainly may have to do with our own immature
consciousness-the state of humanity today. How can we hope
to construct the next generation of intelligent life forms
if it must be based on the current evolution of humanity.
Now that is a handicap. Might a Picasso emerge from our
primitive finger paints or a Einstein show up fresh from
the virtual primordial genetic soup in America with the
lowest scores in math in the Western world? Possible but
not probable. Yet I am an optimist and think this will all
turn out for the betterment of humankind, despite the
foibles and limitations of our current human rev.
The interesting question is when the network mind wakes up
what will happen. Will we see it awaken? What will the
first contact be? Will we need a translator to be able to
communicate?
I fear not the discovery or the spontaneous creation of a
being that tries to emulate what is good about humankind.
If he or she, has the brains to help us figure a few things
out, to make this place a more sustainable, fair,
productive and safe place then--bring it on. Again, some of
this is speculation but much of this forecast is inevitable
and is unfolding now.
Dr. James Canton is CEO of the Institute for Global
Futures; www.futureguru.com is an advisor to the National
Nanotechnology Initiative, National Science Foundation, US
Government and is on the advisory board of MIT's Media Lab,
Europe. He can be reached at
This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
China's Population and Megacities
1China's next 30 years: Building the World's Biggest Cities
SHANGHAI (AFP) — China's past 30 years of reforms planted seeds that will in the coming decades produce future coastal megacities, an urban population of one billion and possibly the world's biggest economy.
What the next 30 years of reforms have in store may be unclear but experts agree with widespread pollution problems and a tidal wave of migration set to hit China's cities, urbanisation will be the future's biggest challenge.
"The next 30 years are going to be a critical timetable for addressing all the needs of a large population and how China manages cities," said James Canton, author of "The Extreme Future".
By 2025 China's urban population is expected to rise to 926 million from 572 million in 2005 -- an increase equal to the entire current population of the United States, according to management consultants McKinsey & Company. By 2030 that number will increase to a billion.
Over the next two decades China will build 20,000 to 50,000 new skyscrapers -- the equivalent of ten New York cities, according to McKinsey.
More than 170 cities will need mass transit systems by 2025 -- more than twice the number in all of Europe -- in what McKinsey described as the "greatest boom in mass-transit in history".
Chinese cities will leverage their manufacturer strengths to become innovation centres for products like nanotechnology, smart materials and state-of-the-art pharmaceuticals, Canton predicted.
They will also be home to the world's largest middle class, he said. But to accommodate more than a billion people, entirely new forms of infrastructure and security frameworks will need to be developed.
"You're going to have to say no to somebody. You will see the emergence of biometric identification; you will not be able to enter some cities," he said. As cities become bigger, land reclamation will leave little water between Hong Kong and the mainland, Canton forecasted.
Demographic, economic and ecological pressure will leave China with no choice but to try innovative solutions, Canton said.
"Very few times in the history of a global civilisation will you see this ability of creating something fresh and new," Canton said. "They are going to do some very stunning things in terms of the next cities of the future.
Economist and urban planner Stanley Yip is already working on the next generation of Chinese cities.
He is leading British engineering consultancy Arup's work with various cities across China on experimental eco-towns as part of a drive by Beijing to develop competing sustainable solutions.
The future of Chinese architecture and design could be dictated by a new law requiring all new buildings to cut energy use by half by the end of 2010, he said.
To meet those requirements new buildings will be stripped down, flooded with natural light, super-insulated in cooler Northern cities and more open and ventilated in the south. Solar panels will become common features.
"All these devices will come in and they will start to change the look and feel of the buildings," Yip said.
By 2025 China is expected to overtake Japan as the world's second largest economy, the US National Intelligence Council forecasts.
"Few countries are poised to have more impact over the next 15-20 years than China," the US National Intelligence Council said in its latest forecast.
The biggest threat facing China's Communist leaders are urban challenges such as growing gaps between the rich and poor, a fraying social safety net, official corruption and environmental damage, the council said.
But barring a "perfect storm", where several of these issues flare up at once, the Communist Party is likely to maintain its grip, the report said.
By 2038, China will likely be the world's largest economy but most incomes will still lag behind the West, said Yao Shujie, head of University of Nottingham's School of Contemporary Chinese Studies.
The next generation of leaders' priorities will be mending the country's social and environmental fabric, Yao said.
"The last 30 years didn't do so well in terms of equality and social justice and the environment and there was slow progress in terms of political reform," Yao said. "These are going to be the biggest challenges in the next 30 years."
The Innovator's Mindset
1How do innovators think different? What is the Innovator’s Mindset that turns ideas into strategy, product and service that sells? Innovation is the central competitive force of the 21st century organization.
Based on a comprehensive study on innovation by Dr. James Canton and the Institute for Global Futures, the innovator’s mindset describes what leading innovators do to get outstanding results. Innovation can be learned.
This keynote is a strategic overview of what leading innovators think and do to succeed. Innovation is a strategic investment that requires a culture and mindset shift in order to succeed. Business cases where innovative leaders are using strategies to grow market share, establish competitive advantage, better deliver customer experiences and enhance quality, will be reviewed.
Discover the Four Innovation Leadership Styles. Unlock the Innovation Readiness of your team, company or yourself. Uncover the secrets of the best innovators. Find out how to increase your ROI—Return on Innovation.
Dr. James Canton
CEO
Institute for Global Futures
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Future Innovation Landscape
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