Dr. James Canton
The Science of 'Surrogates'
1By Alan Boyle
Touchstone Pictures
Click for video: A lifelike face is installed on a robot in a scene from
"Surrogates." Click on the image to watch a video about the trends behind the film.
Bruce Willis' latest action movie takes place in a world where humans mostly stay behind closed doors and interact using lifelike cyber-substitutes. These robotic "surrogates" pass along all their sensations - during work, play and even sex - via virtual reality. In this wired-up world, you can be anybody you want to be through your surrogate: a healthier, younger version of yourself, or a super-athlete, or a supermodel. (Will that be male or female?)
So "Surrogates" is meant as pure science fiction, right? Wrong. The filmmakers and futurists behind the movie say they're aiming for an only slightly enhanced version of present-day trends.
"In the near future, robots are going to start to look like humans," said James Canton, founder of the San Francisco-based Institute for Global Futures. "I think within 10 years you're going to have the world of the surrogates."
You don't even have to wait 10 years to experience the kind of virtual life that eventually goes so wrong in "Surrogates," said the film's director, "Terminator 3" veteran Jonathan Mostow.
"Right now on the Internet you can go and you can shop, talk with your friends, get the news. You can express your opinion. You can pretty much live a full human life without ever leaving your home," Mostow told me.
Not that the movie is a Michael Moore-ish diatribe against the Twitterpated lives that many of us lead nowadays. Like most folks in Hollywood, Mostow recognizes that the film will not fly unless it's the entertaining, thrill-a-minute action ride theatergoers expect from a Bruce Willis movie. But he also means it to be something more.
"We do know just from the test audiences who have seen the movie that people are finding it very thought-provoking," Mostow said. "It's a little bit different from your typical Hollywood thriller."
How is it different? Here's an explanation from Canton, who helped out on the film project: " 'Surrogates' is clearly a near-future vision when you mash up nanotechnology, and of course computing, robotics and the advances in materials science. All these technologies are converging so quickly, and that convergence is what 'Surrogates' covers so well, without getting into the details."
If you want to delve into the real-life details, you can look at the research being conducted in Japan to create sociable robots suited to serve the country's aging population. More signs of change can be seen on far-off battlefields, where the military is using surrogates ranging from bomb-defusing robots to bomb-dropping drones.
Other trends include the rise of online worlds such as "Second Life," where users guide avatars through activities ranging from cyber-boinkingto virtual commerce to the same headaches people experience in real life. Then there's the milieu created by Twitter, Facebook and other online networks. Researchers say the personal interactions on social-networking sites can be just as complicated - and occasionally just as boring - as real life.
Canton said he's already caught glimpses of the road ahead. Imagine, for instance, an extension of the force-feedback technology currently used to make video-game controllers shake and kick back in your hands. "I can tell you I've seen work in the labs that take force-feedback and make it totally sensory and cognitive," he told me.
Like his fellow futurist Ray Kurzweil, Canton believes the time is fast approaching when machines will be more intelligent than natural-born humans - part of a phenomenon dubbed "the singularity." But Canton thinks the age of the surrogates - a society in which machines are used as extensions of human capabilities rather than self-actuating entities - will come well before the singularity.
Baby-boom demographics could accelerate the current trend, he said.
"It's likely that one of the key areas will be memory loss due to Alzheimer's," Canton told me. "Well before we have drugs to mediate memory loss, people will have both cloud-computing and wetware implants to help them with retrieving information. You're going to see this emerge much quicker, and it's going to be driven by baby boomers and baby-boomer economics."
Canton isn't saying that the approach of the singularity - or the surrogates - will be totally a good thing. In fact, that's what the movie is all about. He said the Bruce Willis character "is challenged by a world that has been so dominated by these surrogates that the level of authenticity and humanness has been modified or even mutated."
"That's the big challenge," he said. "There's a wonderful social message in this that I think audiences will find both interesting and provocative as well as entertaining."
That's certainly the way director Jonathan Mostow feels about the film.
It's not as if Mostow started out with a completely blank slate: The movie's screenplay is based on "The Surrogates," a graphic novel by Robert Venditti and Brett Weldele that came out in 2005. And that work, in turn, was inspired by "The Cybergypsies," a book about online addiction in the dial-up modem era. (Those two works, by the way, make a perfect dual selection for the Cosmic Log Used Book Club - a semi-regular listing of books on cosmic themes that have been around long enough to turn up at libraries and secondhand-book shops.)
Even though the concepts that gave rise to "Surrogates" go back a quarter-century, Mostow told me the movie includes a few twists that should give today's Twitterers, texters and Facebookers something to think about.
Interview with Future Guru James Canton Describes Possible Future Scenarios
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By Aaron Saenz Lots of people talk about the future, but few can reliably predict trends.James Canton has enough experience with the future that he helps others by acting like a guide. His accomplishments are wide-ranging: executive at Apple as they prepared to launch Macintosh in the early 80s, founder of numerous influential think tanks including the Institute for Global Futures, advisor to the National Science Foundation, etc. He advises Global Fortune 1000 companies and governments, he was an adviser on the new SciFi action movie Surrogates staring Bruce Willis. He’s written books about the future (including The Extreme Future andTechnofutures), was named as ‘the Digital Guru’ by CNN’, and serves as the co-chair of Singularity University’s Futures and Forecasting Track. In short, James Canton spends most of his time planning ahead and helping others do the same. I was lucky enough to grab him for a phone interview and asked him to share some of what he envisioned as our collective possible futures. “Most of the bleeding edge innovations that somehow we take for granted today, and those that have not yet fully emerged…I get to see a lot of those first…and often times work on them.” — James Canton, 2009 Dr. Canton has so many stories about his experiences with future tech and trend spotting that almost anything can get him going. He and I talked over a free conference call system (FreeConferenceCall.com). The idea of free conference calling, when it emerged years ago, was so novel that Canton remembers people worrying it was some sort of future tech hijacked from time travelers. Crazy what some will assume, but Canton also worked with the first voice over IP platform creators starting fifteen years ago. Their idea was so ahead of its time that the group just recently got their patent last year. Now VOIP accounts for as much as 25% of all telephony traffic today. Some real trends inspire nutty beliefs, some unbelievable trends take years to make reality. Canton has an eye for spotting both. Unpopular Beliefs: Climate and Energy Just look around the Institute for Global Futures website and you’ll see that Canton’s group paints a pretty rosy future for most fields. There’s just so much developing technology and enthusiasm that it’s easy to expect great things in the next few decades. Yet, dig on IGF a little deeper and you’ll notice that the optimistic outlook is missing from two areas: climate and energy. “I do not believe that we will be able to mitigate or manage all of the potential negative impacts due to climate change.” — James Canton, 2009 Canton is the first to admit his beliefs may be unpopular, but he just doesn’t think we can fix all of the climate problems of our world. He estimates that at least 50% of all climate change will not be able to be addressed by even the most drastic alterations of life style. Why? Partly because damage has already been done, partly because there simply isn’t the level of necessary global interest, yet. Instead of finding a magic fix for shifts in global weather, Canton believes we’re going to find ways of adapting. The same way our ancestors adapted to the Ice Age, or how civilizations adapted to the Little Ice Age, we’ll adapt to new trends in climate. That means we need to do some planning now. For Canton, that means worrying about feeding, housing, and providing water for 8 billion people by 2050. In energy, the future may all be about doing what we can with a limited tool kit. Canton doesn’t know exactly what the post-oil civilization will look like, but he guesses that the sort of change that revolutionized personal computing could happen again for energy. He muses that some kid in a garage in Berkeley, or Mumbai, or Shanghai is probably coming up with a game-changing technology right now. Until it takes off, we’ll have to shoe string together alternative energy sources to see us through. Again, that doesn’t mean that the future is out of our control. Billions spent today could affect the world of tomorrow. We may need to research how to build convergent technologies to build a new kind of energy platform (combustion and nanotech, synthetic biology and solar, etc.) Three Possible Futures Depending on how humans adapt to the problems of climate and energy, and depending on how we pursue new technology, we could see a variety of new worlds emerging. We’re talking extreme futures now, maybe several generations ahead of where we’re at today. Canton’s visions for what that time could be like falls into three broad scenarios. First, there’s the ultimate utopia. There’s a high quality of life planet wide. Nano-foundries and molecular manufacturing allows everyone to have access to resources and to live extended lives thanks to personalized medicine. AI control of supply and demand helps distribute resources between buildings, cities, and nations in the most efficient manner possible. Efficiency and sustainability are the key to Canton’s vision of Utopia. He freely admits that we aren’t on the path to that paradise right now. “It certainly is possible, but it’s gonna take…a massive shift in issues.” The world isn’t focused on efficiency and sustainability right now, but if it was, it could find a way to make access to resources a solvable problem. How likely is this utopia future? Canton thinks “we are going to get there out of adapting.” Change the way we think about our world, and we can change world. Our second scenario is much like today, just extended. There will be haves and have-nots but with much larger gaps between the two groups. Pockets of progress will dot the globe, likely in about 150 or so ‘mega-cities’. These sprawling urban landscapes of 15-25+ million people will be centers for talent and resources. We may see a billion millionaires populate these locations. Many of the benefits from the utopia scenario will be available to the ‘haves’ in the mega-cities. “In 2035 I forecast, due to technological innovations, that…poverty and terrorism and war…will be reduced by 80%.” —James Canton, 2009 The rest of us won’t have it so bad, though. Dr. Canton firmly believes that democratized technology will help us partially heal most of the major problems we have today. Poverty and war and terrorism (the three are linked in his mind) will be reduced by up to 80% by 2035. Individuals the world over will experience quality of life three to five times better than that of today. Why? Because we’ll have been working on major problems for more than a generation. 25+ years of addressing sustainability, poverty, and other ‘grand challenges’. We may face a ’sustainable singularity’ - a time when the pursuit of solving the world’s problems has reached a point when major improvements are taken as par for the time. Even with some having more than others, the baseline could be pulled up drastically. The final scenario is one that no one but science fiction writers would really enjoy. The ‘implosion’ scenario is a possibility wherein Canton sees disaster as the defining trend. Conflict zones, like the ones we have today, will have grown with the application of rogue technologies, and dwindling resources. The mega-cities from Scenario Two will become fortress cities. In a way, that’s the sort of world we live in today. Some of the world feels safe, other parts experience great conflict. “Every technology that could be used to create the Utopia…could also be used to rob people of their…rights.” —James Canton, 2009 How do we avoid the implosion of society? Canton believes that we can’t just blindly pursue technology, we also have to pay attention to society. Democratic access to, and distribution of technology can uplift the two billion people currently in the cycles of war, poverty, and terrorism. If the disease is social decay, Canton’s cure is massive doses of technology to improve quality of life. Singularity University With so much at stake, it’s no wonder Canton likes his involvement with Singularity University. “It’s a grand experiment in engaging, enlightening, and enabling the next generation of leaders to have a perspective about these emerging technologies, the good, the bad, and the ugly. ” For those of you new to SU, its students take summer long classes that expose them to future technologies and ideas. Everything from zero gravity to longevity. “The first year [of Singularity University] is a success because we got it done. There’s never been a university formed in such a short period of time with such outrageous revolutionary goals, that actually got done.” — James Canton, 2009 Next year, there will be even more technologies and constant improvement of the curriculum. Executive programs will start in the fall, winter, and spring that are shorter 9 day long versions of the summer session. CEO programs of just 3 days will also be available. Canton hopes these programs will help shape the way leaders think about the future and help them “to be a better planetary citizen.” “The far future is a place where many innovations that are just beginning to emerge today…[will] make a better world [tomorow].” — James Canton, 2009
Technofutures Table of Contents
1 Chapter 1: Welcome to the Extreme Future 1Why Read This Book: Business Survival
Future Smart
Thinking Outside the Box, Really
Paradigm Wars
Customers Rule
Extreme Challenges, Opportunities, and Competition
The Top Ten Business Trends for the 21st Century
Chapter 2: The Four Power Tools of the New Millennium 7
High-Tech Innovation
High-Tech as the Key Driver of the 21st-Century Enterprise
Overview of the Sea Change
A New Renaissance
The Four Power Tools: Computers, Networks, Biotech, and Nanotech
Quantum-Leap Convergence
How to Think About What's Next
The Four Building Blocks: Bits, Atoms, Neurons, and Genes
Mapping the Future of Business and Society
Chapter 3: The Computer As 21st-Century Cyber-Companion 17
The Top Ten Computer Trends for the 21st Century
The First Power Tool
The Convergence of Computers and Networks
Intuitive Computing
Artificial Brains On-Demand
Thinking Machines Wake Up
From Wetware to Gelware
Distributed Intelligence Everywhere
The Convergence of Computers and Biotech
Silicon Sentience
Smart Chips in Everything
When Computers Are Smarter
Chapter 4: Brave New Internet 47
The Top Ten Internet Trends for the 21st Century
The Second Power Tool
Digital Democracy
Fat Pipes and Fast Speeds
The Next Generation Net
The Net As a Paradigm Catalyst
The Megaverse
Deep Personalization
Blended Reality
Cyber-Experience as a Commodity
Synthetic Pleasure
The Sensory Net: Touch Me, Feel Me
Chapter 5: Artificial Life: Bots, Agents, and Vants 71
The Top Ten A-Life Trends for the 21st Century
The Five Forces of A-Life
In Silico Life
More Human Than Human
Networked A-Life
Shopping Agents
Living in an Information Ecology
Digitally Engineered Personalities
Chapter 6: Cyborgs, Robots, Androids, & Newcomers Among Us 93
The Top Ten Robotic Trends for the 21st Century
Robot Evolution on Overdrive
Conscious Androids
Robo-Humans
My Robot, My Self
Cyborg Body Shops
The Robot Enterprise
Robo-Cops, Docs, and Jocks
Robo-Babes and Robo-Dudes
Chapter 7: The Future of E-Business 109
The Ten Top E-Business Trends for the 21st Century
Every Business Is an E-Business
The Battle for Customers
The Key Business Advantages
New Rules, New Economy
Reaching the Connected Customer
Net Economics at Warp Speed
Virtual Value Chains
Digital Darwinism
Next-Generation Business Models
Cyber-Merchandising
Cyber-Services
Virtual Private Markets
Digital Cash
Rise of the Knowledge Brokers
Chapter 8: Electronic Education 139
The Ten Top Electronic Education Trends for the 21st Century
Lifelong E-Education
Interactive Multimedia Programs
Customized Learning
Cyber-Training
Virtual Schools, Virtual Students
Virtual-Reality Learning
Knowledge Capital: The Only Competitive Edge
Chapter 9: Biotech Designer Babies and 200-Year-Old Birthday Parties 155
The Top Ten Biotech Trends for the 21st Century
The Third Power Tool
Hacking the Human Genome
Trading DNA
Redesigning Life
Longevity Marketing
The Health Enhancement Business
On-Demand Evolution
Designer Babies
Human Cloning
Bio-Capitalism
Packaging Immortality
The Post-Genomic Society
Chapter 10: Future Health 183
The Top Ten Health-Care Trends for the 21st Century
Healing Health Care
Telemedicine Futures
Robosurgeons and Cyberdocs
Cyber Health Online
Privacy for Sale
Smart Drugs
Toward a New Health System
Chapter 11: Nanotech - The Ultimate Alchemy 205
The Top Ten Nanotech Trends for the 21st Century
The Fourth Power Tool
Molecular Manufacturing
Shape-Shifting Matter
Reverse Engineering Life
Micromachines
Nano-Economics
The Supreme Killer App: Human Enhancement
The Nanotech Enterprise
The Five Domains of Nanotech
Designing Reality
Why Nanotech Changes Everything
Chapter 12: Entertainment and the Digital Future 223
The Top Ten Entertainment Trends for the 21st Century
Net-TV Convergence
Interactive Realities for Sale
Digital Actors
Digital TV
Everyone's a Director
On-Demand Fun
Personalized Media
Participatory Entertainment
The Emotion Engine
Networked Games
Future Entertainment Worlds
Chapter 13: Space - The Next Frontier 241
The Top Ten Space Trends for the 21st Century
Robonauts
A Cosmic Gold Rush
Future Flight
Space Wars
Space Tourism
Space Health
Terraforming Planets
Star Mission
First Contact
Chapter 14: High-Tech Innovation and Leadership 265
Meeting the Business-Critical Challenges of the 21st Century
The Four Change Leadership Styles
Growing Innovation: The Key
Learning to Listen to the Future
Becoming Future Smart
Click Here to Learn More About Dr. Canton's Book The Extreme Future
Technofutures Video
1
The Extreme Future Table of Contents
1 Introduction: The White House ixChapter 1 - Welcome to the Extreme Future 3
Chapter 2 - Fueling the Future 23
Chapter 3 - Finding Prosperity: The Innovation Economy 47
Chapter 4 - Help Wanted: The Future of the Workforce 89
Chapter 5 - Outliving the Future: Longevity Medicine 117
Chapter 6 - Tomorrow's Climate 153
Chapter 7 - Cultures in Collision: The Future of Globalization 183
Chapter 8 - Securing the Future 209
Chapter 9 - Weird Science: What's Next 245
Chapter 10 - Invisible War: The Future of the Individual 281
Chapter 11 - Dancing Dragon: The Future of China 301
Chapter 12 - The Future of America and Democracy 331
Acknowledgments 355
Index 357
Click Here to Learn More About Dr. Canton's Book Technofutures
The Top Ten Green IT Trends for 2009
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The Green IT revolution is here and those organizations that make the effort now will be big winners this year, and beyond. 2009 is Green Tech’s year for making innovations part of mainstream business. With soaring energy prices and increased consumer awareness of the danger to the environment, organizations will have to get serious about the migration to Green Tech. There will be winners and losers, hype and reality. Follow these trends to ensure your organization is a winner on the Green IT front. Here is how to effectively plan:
Defining the Green IT Paradigm
Getting clarity about the definition of Green IT will be vital this year. The Green IT Paradigm should involve: Conservation, waste reduction, pollution controls, resource allocation, energy efficiency and alternative energy use. Areas such as reducing costs on travel, telecommuting and the ecological use of resources, will be important to factor in. The end-game for Green IT is better and more responsible corporate accountability, so get ahead of the wave here, now. Keep in mind that Green IT is also about a culture change in your organization. As with any culture change there will be resistance and denial. Tie this to the bottom line and it will have a better chance for success.
Green Data Centers
The move towards green in data centers, which are the largest part of the power-hungry IT ecosystem, is evolving. Data Centers may be contributing to over 15% of total energy usage by some organizations. Better efficiencies, smarter cooling, use of alternative energy, and smarter utilization of data resources are all part of this evolution. Make sure your outsourcers understand this and support it.
Holistic Green IT Strategy & Plan
Formulating a holistic Green IT strategy may be the most important exercise for every company this year. Don’t try and do everything at once—have a plan. Having in place a meaningful and comprehensive strategy and plan that is focused on what and when to embrace Green IT actions is essential. Also, Green IT needs to be organization-wide, not just IT. Green IT is not just about buying more efficiently, but about a process change as well in how you think about energy, resources, waste, materials and products.
Green IT Metrics
Measuring the performance of your Green IT efforts should be top of mind for 2009. A lot of promises without results will not separate you from the crowd. There will be a lot of talk and customer doubt that organizations are serious, so get good metrics. Saving money, being efficient, reducing costs is part of the deal—being environmentally responsible is just as important for the long term.
Create Meaningful Green IT Results
Many results that are minor may not translate into a seriously perceived effort by customers, vendors or top management. Or, don’t attempt to do the impossible and fail. Manage expectations, but get results. Have small wins and build on them. Conservation and waste management, then energy, is a good path. Work hard to select meaningful and relevant results that can demonstrate your serious Green IT efforts. Some efforts may actually increase costs, so cost alone is not always the best measure.
Showcase Your Green IT Wins
Many organizations do not celebrate, promote and showcase their wins. When it comes to Green IT, bake this into the sales promotion, shareholders communication channels and media. Even vendors and partners should be evangelized. Most of all, promote your wins to customers.
Transform Your Supply Chain
Do an analysis of your supply chain. How green is it? Efforts internally to go green without affecting vendors and partners in your supply chain will come back to haunt you later. Influence them to make changes with you, even go so far as support efforts and award business to those that get green with you.
Create a Green ROI Formula
A Green IT Return-on-Investment is a formula for both selling and justifying the need to change, and what capital or investments in people or equipment you will need to deliver on for your Green IT plan. If you invest X, what will be the ROI? Will it be in customer appreciation? Reduced costs? New business?
Become a Green IT Innovator
This is the year when innovations will go mainstream, so what are the key innovations in moving data, services, people, transactions and systems that will demonstrate your commitment to being a Green IT innovator? Find clear green innovations that you can implement in how you move data, people, paper, systems, transactions and communications. Choose 1-3 innovations in each of these areas that can produce an effective green result, a EGR, over the next 30 days. Then choose another set for the next. Then use these to offer to rest of the organization, vendors and customers.
Serve Customers Smarter with Green IT
Green IT is an excellent way to serve customers and grow market share by being an innovator. Green will affect customer buying decisions this year. Get green and succeed. Deny it and suffer. Keep in mind, most customers are green supporters, they expect your organization to make change. Also, you can use Green IT to teach your customers how to become green. Share the learning. Grow the market. Be accountable for the Green IT revolution.
Navigating the Extreme Economy
1The current economic crisis offers companies and leaders a unique opportunity to rethink their business. It is no longer "Business as Usual". Complex new challenges brought by the customer, technology, competitors and the marketplace will make being successful in business tougher than ever. Welcome to the Extreme Economy. In this keynote, best-selling author, futurist and business visionary, Dr. James Canton, identifies the key trends, risks and strategies that will enable you to effectively deal with the Extreme Economy. Recognized by the Economist Magazine as one of the leading global futurists, find out the keys to navigating change now. Find out what's coming next and how to deal with talent, globalization, disruptive economics, innovation, customer experience and competitive forces. Find out how to better navigate change with an upbeat, positive and constructive bluepring that will help your organization survive today and thrive in the future.
Dr. James Canton
CEO
Institute for Global Futures
Read some Client Testimonials
SURROGATES Tech just 10 Years Away?
1Wired.com takes a look at the science fact behind the science fiction of the new comic-based movie 'The Surrogates'.
In the future depicted by the film, everyday people can send a robotic surrogate out into the world in their place, as they sleep at home and mentally control their android double.
In reality, such robots already exist, although they are far less sophisticated than the ones in the movie and require more typical keyboard, joystick, microphone and monitors to control the surrogate robot's off-site actions.
Still futurist Dr. James Canton tells Wired, "In the near future, robots are going to start to look like humans. I think within 10 years we are going to have the world of the Surrogates."
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