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Dr. James Canton

CNET Interviews Dr. Canton regarding Converging Technologies and Human Performance

1

When brains meet computer brawn

By Ed Frauenheim
Staff Writer, CNET News.com
August 5, 2002, 10:00 AM PT

People linking their brains together to form a global collective intelligence. Humans living well beyond 100 years. Computers uploading aspects of our personalities to a network.

These could all happen this century with the proper investments in technology, according to a recent report from the National Science Foundation and the Department of Commerce.

Titled "Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance: Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology, and Cognitive Science," the 405-page report calls for more research into the intersection of these fields. The payoff, the authors claim, isn't just better bodies and more effective minds. Progress in these areas of technology also could play a key role in preventing a societal "catastrophe." The answer to human brutality and new forms of lethal weapons, it suggests, is a kind of tech-triggered unity: "Technological convergence could become the framework for human convergence."

Published last month, the report could one day be remembered as a seminal road map to the future. But it's not clear whether its recommendations will be followed--or should be.

Some critics question whether such sci-fi promises can ever become reality, while others doubt world salvation will come through technology. Others worry that advanced technologies such as super-smart robots or genetically modified organisms may cause us more harm than good.

The "Converging Technologies" report stems from a workshop last December involving tech leaders in government, academia and private industry. Major themes at the seminar ranged from expanding human cognition and communication to improving human health to strengthening national security.

The final report, edited by Mihail Roco, NSF's senior adviser for nanotechnology, and William Bainbridge, acting director of NSF's Division of Information and Intelligent Systems, includes papers submitted by various participants as well as an overview by Roco and Bainbridge. In the overview, the editors argue that a host of advances can be achieved in the next 20 years alone. Among these are wearable sensors that send health alerts, much more useful robots, invulnerable data networks, and direct broadband interfaces between our minds and machines.

With research in converging technologies, it's possible some disabilities will be eradicated completely and normal standards of healthiness will soar, Roco and Bainbridge wrote. "The human body will be more durable, healthy, energetic, easier to repair and resistant to many kinds of stress, biological threat and (the) aging process."

Also at stake is the health of the nation's economy, said James Canton, a futurist who helped organize the workshop. If the United States doesn't coordinate research into these four technologies, it risks losing its global tech leadership, Canton said. Technology already lets individuals and nations "leapfrog" others, and the combination of nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive science is going to create an "entirely different economy," Canton said.

"It's really a comprehensive change that makes the Internet seem small," said Canton, president of the Institute for Global Futures in San Francisco.

The report thinks big when it comes to peering beyond the next two decades to the rest of the 21st century. Taking visionaries such as Ray Kurzweil seriously, it imagines robots so advanced they may deserve political rights, building surfaces that automatically change shape and color to adjust to the weather, and the prospect of personality uploads that make death itself ambiguous.

Merging human consciousness with machines is tied to another mind-boggling concept: brain-to-brain connections. The report discusses the possibility of "local groups of linked enhanced individuals" as well as "a global collective intelligence."

Creating such a networked society could play a vital role in overcoming today's social and political crises, Roco and Bainbridge suggest. "The 21st century could end in world peace, universal prosperity and evolution to a higher level of compassion and accomplishment," they write. "It is hard to find the right metaphor to see a century into the future, but it may be that humanity would become like a single, transcendent nervous system, an interconnected 'brain' based in new core pathways of society."

Helpful or harmful?
Not everyone is likely to sign up for this techno-utopia, however. Some people are skeptical about technology's capabilities and cast doubt on proposals such as capturing consciousness through computers or linking neurons with nanocircuitry. Our minds may not be able to handle the flood of information resulting from a brain-machine interface, suggests Jeremy Rifkin, author of books on biotechnology and globalization. "The human physiology is just not designed for this speed-of-light world," Rifkin said.

Although he welcomes the report's call for more interdisciplinary research, Rifkin said society ought to pick and choose carefully among emerging technologies given potential downsides. "Some of that harm can be irreversible--especially in biotechnology," he said. Rifkin calls for a ban on transgenic crops and has raised concerns about the prospect of developing fetuses in artificial wombs.

Sun Microsystems' Bill Joy also has warned that advanced technology could trigger its own catastrophe--such as in the form of self-replicating nanoscale robots that dismantle everything into a "gray goo." A cautionary tale is even suggested by the television show "Star Trek: The Next Generation": The malevolent character of the Borg suggests society may not want to share a single mind.

Other criticisms of pouring resources into technology research are that political repression and socio-economic divisions ought to be addressed first, and that thorny ethical issues have yet to be worked out completely. These include questions such as what methods--such as cloning, embryonic stem cell research and genetic engineering--are acceptable, what kinds of enhancements are appropriate and who should benefit from them. The "Converging Technologies" report concedes debate is needed on the ethics front. And efforts to promote human rights and combat poverty deserve attention along with the technology push, said Phil Kuekes, a researcher at Hewlett-Packard Laboratories who participated in the workshop. "I don't think it's an either-or issue," he said. Although new technology is always a sword with a dangerous side, the specter of self-replicating nanobots running amok is science fiction, Kuekes said. "The gray goo stuff is not credible," he said.

Kuekes acknowledged the consciousness-upload possibility is speculative, but claims the report is generally grounded in hard science. His lab, for example, is experimenting with electronic devices made up of just a few molecules. Since these are 1,000 to 10,000 times smaller than current silicon-based circuits, they could result in a storage device powerful enough to cram the entire Library of Congress into a device that fits on a person's wrist.

To push this sort of research in the right directions, Canton hopes political leaders will make converging technologies a national initiative, just as Washington did with nanotechnology research two and a half years ago. That helped transform the once-obscure field of the tiny into a big player in science, thanks partly to annual federal funding this year of $604 million.

Kuekes would like to see the "Converging Technologies" report spark debate among policy makers, the general public and even students, who may be leading the scientific charge a few years from now. That's partly why the tech leaders behind the report gazed as far as they did into the future, Kuekes said, risking ridicule and rebuke in the process. "It is very forward looking," he said. "The group that issued this report kind of stuck their neck out."
 

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Media Testimonials

   

InfoWorld Interview with Dr. James Canton

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InfoWorld
Technology marches on Advances may spark fundamental changes in how IT work is done
By Nora Isaacs

A wise person once said that the only thing constant is change. This adage surely rings true for IT professionals heading into the next century, whose jobs entail incorporating a dizzying number of technological advances.

"Technology is changing at warp speed," says James Canton, president of Institute for Global Futures, a San Francisco-based think tank that advises Fortune 1000 companies on the impact of leading-edge technologies on customers, markets, and the economy. "If you were to disappear and come back after 90 days, the Net would have doubled, bandwidth would have increased by a third, and there would be a half a dozen innovations you would have missed."

With technology changing at breakneck speed, where will that leave IT professionals 20 years from now? According to some predictions, in a place where users and customers reign supreme, where virtual offices are the norm -- and where IT's role and structure have radically changed.

THE CUSTOMER IS KING. "IT is the strategic weapon for the battle of the customer," Canton says. With Internet commerce rapidly changing the economy, customer service will soon become the driving force behind any IT job. As customers drive changes, corporations must scramble to keep up with their demands. Canton predicts that in 20 years, as much as 30 percent of today's industries will be gobbled up by the Web and simply disappear. "The central issue is that they will not change fast enough to meet customer needs," Canton says. "Customers will either reward or punish you for how you create values such as cyber service." Other changes may also help increase the emphasis on the customer.

Chuck Martin, chairman and CEO of the Net Future Institute, in North Hampton, N.H., and the author of The Digital Estate and Net Future, says the biggest technological change for IT professionals will be rapid advances in real-time predictive modeling technology. Although organizations such as banks have been using this predictive modeling technology for a long time, Martin sees a change on the horizon because of the emphasis on the customer. "We are moving away from the product of a company having value and moving toward a time where information is more valuable than the product," Martin says. Martin uses the example of a buying a car on the Web. Today, a consumer will look at cars, choose a red one, and then be directed to a place to buy a nice red car. In the future, the car company will be analyzing data around the country to see what consumers are doing. If they decide that many people will want red cars in the future, the company will connect in real time with a red-paint manufacturer in Taiwan.

ALL HAIL THE USER. With technology embedded just about everywhere, the user will take on a much bigger role. It will be up to IT professionals to create intuitively friendly operating system environments and applications that will produce efficiency, speed, and value for the user.

"Extranets and the globalization of IT organizations have turned IT on its head, introducing dynamic career paths for programmers, network security directors, and application developers, who must now build from the user's perspective," says Amy Rusko, managing editor at the Charleston, S.C.-based IT & Internet Business Report. She notes that although tools that are customer- or user-centric are often more complicated to create and maintain, this is the way things are headed as user demands increase.

Other technology predictions may also affect both users' and IT professionals' careers. Graphical interface tools will get simpler so users can change, update, and customize, leaving those in IT with time for planning business strategy. Speech-recognition technology will dramatically change the role of people in the software development community.

"We have this device that has a lot of technology in it, but the burden falls to the development community to be able to factor usability," says Tony Wasserman, a principal at Software Methods and Tools, a San Francisco-based consulting service. Wasserman predicts that as speech-recognition technology becomes widely used, the number of people with no computing skills will also grow.

Web-based applications will displace traditional application software. "Browsers are becoming the default way to access information," says Paul Saffo, a technology forecaster at the Institute For The Future, a Menlo Park, Calif.-based think tank. For IT folks, Web-based applications still mean development, but a different kind -- fast-moving, lightweight applications with front-end browsers. "The idea of fiddling with Microsoft applications will evaporate," Saffo predicts. While this takes the burden of constant upgrading and maintenance away from IT people, shifting to browsers also comes with increased user expectations. Some say integration is another key word of the future. IT jobs may become less about technology itself and more about the strategy of linking technology together. "It will be integrating everything, doing e-commerce, planning a business strategy -- all before you have your cup of coffee in the morning," Canton says.

WHAT OFFICE? Another trend that is designed to make life easier for users -- remote access -- may significantly complicate IT's role as well. With an increase in bandwidth and the use of broadband technologies, the work environment will be accessible at any time from any place. The expansion of telecommuting may mean the near death of brick and mortar offices, which creates an interesting challenge for IT folks. "How do you create a virtual network for three-quarters of an organization that doesn't have an office?" Canton asks. One answer: Advances in bandwidth will let people easily teleconference, download large documents, and use digital video streaming media.

The entrance of broadband into the consumer environment also means a big jump in remote workers. Fast Internet access will drive every business, and the Internet will be available on every device -- cellular phones, wireless pilots, and as a channel on digital television. Many IT professionals, such as programmers, will be able to work from anywhere. The downside, of course, is that people with no offices can't leave their work at the office. When the office becomes anywhere and everywhere, IT could potentially become a 24-hour-a-day, seven-day-a-week job for all IT professionals.

A RADICAL RESTRUCTURING. All of these technical changes mean that in the next few decades, IT's role in an organization will undergo a fundamental change. The shape of that reinvention, however, depends on whom you ask. Canton envisions a future in which IT professionals will understand business strategy and business-critical applications, become customer centric, and get fully involved in strategic planning. Embracing these trends is critical for survival. "I'm forecasting now, particularly post-Y2K, that as many as 15 percent of all companies will transform their IT staffs," Canton says. Such a transformation involves a holistic approach to IT.

"The concept that we have regular jobs and IT jobs will be gone," says Leilani Allen, a partner at Summer Point Consulting, in Mundelein, Ill. "Everything will have a systems component." Allen compares today's IT departments to the traditional "ghetto" society.

"If you take the historical meaning of a ghetto, it's where a society wanted to contain a group, as well as the group itself wanted to preserve themselves," Allen says. "As we enter the next century, those ghetto walls will have to come down." As those walls crumble, a people who understand IT, understand customer service, and are extremely computer savvy will populate more leadership positions. "The whole era of IT as a support function for marketing, finance, and sales is history," Canton says. The open question, according to Saffo, is whether IT will centralize or break within smaller departments. "The creative IT department is going to be where it's broken up so that IT people are out on the front lines," Saffo says. "The combination of standardized protocols and component-based software will make it less and less sensible for corporations to have their own IS staff in the traditional sense," says Chris Meyer, partner and director of the Ernst & Young Center for Business Innovation, in Cambridge, Mass. Rather than blending into the background, Canton sees a future populated by what he calls "IT SWAT teams" where IT staffs are expandable on demand, deployable virtually and physically -- any time and any place. Exactly how this will happen within the new IT structure depends on new technologies and user needs. Just as technology drives changes, change drives technology. According to the experts, the next century looks like an airplane runway that never ends, with the technology careening faster and faster toward an unknown terrain.
   

The Future of Financial Services

1
   

Brain Waves

1

Brain Waves

Business2.0
By Carol Pickering,


The World Wide Web may be in its infancy, or just entering adolescence. It's hard to be certain. As we mapped the path of its evolution, we asked 10 influential people to riff on their visions of the Web -- what form will it take?

Dr. James CantonPresident, Institute for Global Futures, Futurist The deep personalization of content that is customized for our preferences, that remembers who we are, and organizes in nanoseconds, in real-time, what we want, will be essential. More intelligent searching technology, voice and gesture driven, will be a central feature of the future Net. The entire experience of being online will become natural and intuitive, mimicking human interaction.

The merging of the physical and the virtual world will have a profound impact on education, entertainment, and health care. Doctors will be on the Net as they operate on patients; education will become an experience of cyber-traveling to engage in synthetic adventures; entertainment will become interactive, sensory, and infinite in its possibilities; nothing will be taboo.

We will digitize sensory information such as smell, touch, sight, and sound - even emotions. Biometric recognition and force-feedback technology will make the Net a fully interactive sensory experience. There is no doubt that there will be a dark side to all this digital bounty. Invasions of privacy, identity theft, stolen digital cash, abuses of medical and personal information will also be common. The future doesn't come without its baggage. Pack light.
   

The Future of Healthcare

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Health Forum Journal Interviews Dr. Canton

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Dr. Canton Interviewed by Health Forum Journal
Nanomedicine: The Next Little Thing

By David Ollier Weber
Sept/Oct 2002

Nanomedicine is a blockbuster, with huge implications for health care (not to mention human life). Realize it or not, you are living in the Century of Nanomedicine. Nothing is going to be the same.

Disease? An obsolescent concept, at least as conventionally defined.

Already, notes the man who has literally written the book on nanomedicine, theoretician Robert Freitas Jr., of Zyvex Corporation, in Richardson, Texas, scientists are rapidly filling in the map of the human genome and dissecting the proteome. It is not unreasonable to expect that before mid-century we will possess "a complete catalog of all human proteins, lipids, carbohydrates, nucleoproteins and other molecules, including full sequence, structure and much functional information," he writes. This will be accomplished in large measure thanks to the chemists, materials scientists, and nanotechnology engineers at university laboratories and start-up commercial enterprises who are gaining astonishing dexterity in the fabrication of complex microscopic tools and "machines" assembled by positioning nanobits of matter with atomic-level precision.

(The prefix nano- comes from the Greek word for dwarf, Freitas explains, and is used to designate one-billionth of a standard measurement--a nanometer, for example, is one billionth of a meter, or about the width of six carbon atoms. Nanotechnology and nanomedicine refer to deployment of instruments built, sized, and operating on a scale of less than 100 nanometers--"the scale of biology," points out chemist Chad Mirkin, director of the Institute for Nanotechnology at Northwestern University. A virus, for example, measures 60 to 100 nanometers, an antibody 2 to 20, a protein under 10.)

"The comprehensive knowledge of human molecular structure so painstakingly acquired during the 20th and early 21st centuries will be used in the 21st century to design medically active microscopic machines," asserts Freitas in Nanomedicine, the densely annotated, intricately reasoned 500-page survey of possibilities he published in 1999. (He is now at work at Zyvex on volumes two and three. All quotes that follow, except those indicated, are from the first book.) "These machines," he continues, "rather than being tasked primarily with voyages of pure discovery, will instead most often be sent on missions of cellular inspection, repair and reconstruction." Nanometer-scaled medical "robots" armed with detectors and antibiotic or antiviral payloads that can seek out invaders inside individual cells, or gobble and neutralize microbes circulating in the bloodstream, or link and assemble tissue structures to accomplish major reconstructive and restorative procedures will be capable within a few decades, Freitas is confident, of "revers[ing] all pathological effects of disease or injury, with a minimum of pain, discomfort, side effects, intrusiveness and time, and with a maximum of effectiveness, efficiency and likelihood of success."

Medical Evolution
Just how nutty is this guy? We're not all zipping around in flying cars as was predicted in the 1950s, or commuting to the moon à la Stanley Kubrick's 2001: A Space Odyssey. How likely is it that infinitesimal medical robots will be bustling about inside our bodies, keeping us hale and virtually immortal in 2101? Freitas points to the trajectory of science history. As does James Canton, president of the Institute for Global Futures, in San Francisco. "Right now, in terms of time lines and the development of Western medicine, we're just a few notches away from leeches and bloodletting," observes Canton. And yet, he acknowledges, those notches include the groundbreaking biological insights that, since the mid-19th century, have transformed medical diagnosis and therapy from a magical art into a modern, evidence-based science. It was in the late 17th century that scholars introduced the term molecula. By 1869 the chemistry-book definition of a "molecule" was "the smallest particle of an element in the free state . . . , a group of atoms mechanically indivisible." A dawning appreciation of the biological function of molecules by Louis Pasteur (seeking a treatment for anthrax), Paul Ehrlich, Alexander Fleming, Rene Dubos, and others culminated in the development of penicillin (in 1939) and successor antibiotics--agents of unprecedented potency against pathogens because of their deadly molecular aim.

Refinements in microscopy enabled biologists in the 1850s to descry the dye-absorbing rods in cell nuclei they labeled chromosomes, and to recognize by the early 20th century that these were the repositories of genes. By mid-century James Watson, Francis Crick, and Maurice Wilkins, interpreting the remarkable X-ray crystallographic images and brilliant clues supplied by Rosalind Franklin (she would die of cancer at 37), had earned Nobel Prizes for their elucidation of the double-helical nature of the molecule that encodes an organism's genetic heritage: deoxyribonucleic acid, or DNA. In 1990, amplification of this knowledge, hitched to other scientific advances--including the use of viruses as vectors to insert desirable genes into living cells, and the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technique for rapidly reading and replicating the chemical base pairs of DNA strands--made possible the first "gene therapy" for a child born with a hereditary disorder, adenosine deaminase deficiency. It worked.

In the late 1950s, physicist Richard Feynman predicted that the ability to arrange atoms "one by one the way we want them" would be an inevitable step along the path of scientific advance. And indeed, by 1982 IBM researchers had built the scanning tunneling microscope that enabled them to shuffle 35 xenon atoms to spell out the corporate logo. A refinement, the atomic force microscope, offered even more precision and versatility in working with living systems. In 1985, Rice University researcher Richard Smalley created a new form of carbon whose 60 atoms form a geodesic sphere with walls only one atom thick. (He called it Buckminsterfullerene after the architect of the geodesic dome, a name later shortened to fullerene. It was in this period that the term nanotechnology was also introduced.) Used as the tip on an atomic force microscope probe, a tubular variant of the carbon-60 molecule now gives researchers the ability to scrutinize the composition and operation of single proteins--for example, beta amyloid, the source of the plaque that accumulates in the brain to produce Alzheimer's disease.

Genie's Box
More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads: One path leads to despair and hopelessness, and the other to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly. --Woody Allen
B Not everyone is ecstatic about the prospects of a nanotechnology-enhanced world. Sun Microsystems cofounder and chief scientist Bill Joy is a notable Cassandra who fears that comedian Allen may have got it right. In a 2000 interview with the online magazine Salon, Joy explained his fears:

"We understand biology and we understand machines, but these things [nanotechnology, genetic engineering, and robotics] are different. . . . These things are so powerful [that when we use them] we really can't foresee what the outcome will be."

Joy thinks some kind of consensus on regulation must be reached, but he's not expecting it anytime soon. "We would have to deal with the scientific community's enormous desire for lack of interference, and businesses' enormous desire for lack of interference, and government's desire to not do anything," he opined joylessly. "Everybody's pretty happy with the status quo at this point. It's going to take some real leadership, and it's going to take time to develop."

Futurist Canton shares Freitas's certainty that "we have now unlocked the genie's box. This is the last generation of folks who will not have access to a deep palette of understanding of our genetic destiny. There won't even be a field in 10 years called 'nanomedicine'--it'll simply be 'medicine.' And the transformation will be profound. Manipulation of matter at the atomic level means manipulation of our entire reality. It will challenge the whole notion of human evolution."

Thus Canton shares Joy's deep trepidations as well.

"We'll make every mistake we can possibly make," Canton predicts, "up to the point of damaging the gene pool. We don't know enough to know the potential risks to our evolutionary foundation this technology could produce. We're talking about how our consciousness and behavior may be altered by the most powerful set of tools any civilization has ever dealt with in the history of mankind. So. Do I think we ought to move cautiously? Yes. But I also believe we will move forward."

No doubt about it. Certainly not among the nanotechnologists. Gazing at the manmade molecules of nanoscale bone-seed he's synthesized at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in Troy, New York [see sidebar], chemist Richard Siegel exclaims: "We're living in a very exciting world right now!"

Welcome to the Century of Nanomedicine. Nothing is going to be the same.

Excerpted from Health Forum Journal September/October 2002
   

Welcome to the Future - Health & Medicine

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